Football · Brazil Serie D · 28/06, 21:00
Marcilio Dias vs FC Cascavel
45%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marcilio Dias 1523 · FC Cascavel 1505
| Marcilio Dias | Draw | FC Cascavel | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 36% | 20% |
| Market | 46% | 33% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.66 goals · Bet365 line 1.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals1.66Marcilio Dias 1.05 · FC Cascavel 0.61
Over / Under 1.5Over 1.5 · 50%
BTTSNo · 56%
Most likely total1 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 84%model estimate
Match keys
- Low estimate: 1.66 goals → consider Under 2.5.
- H2H favours FC Cascavel: 2-3-0.
- High corners: 11.6 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Marcilio Dias | FC Cascavel | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.7 | 1 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 7.2 | 2.6 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0 | 5.4 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marcilio Dias 0–3–2 FC Cascavel
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/26 Brazil Serie D | FC Cascavel | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Marcilio Dias |
| 09/07/22 Brazil Serie D | FC Cascavel | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Marcilio Dias |
| 23/04/22 Brazil Serie D | Marcilio Dias | 1-1 HT 0-0 | FC Cascavel |
| 28/08/21 Brazil Serie D | FC Cascavel | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Marcilio Dias |
| 13/06/21 Brazil Serie D | Marcilio Dias | 1-1 HT 0-1 | FC Cascavel |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marcilio Dias
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | FC Cascavel Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 07/06 | Sao Joseense Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 02/06 | Azuriz FC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | Sao Jose PA Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | Blumenau EC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Blumenau EC Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 19/04 | Sao Jose PA Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 7 | W |
| 11/04 | Azuriz FC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | D |
FC Cascavel
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Marcilio Dias Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 07/06 | Santa Catarina Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 31/05 | Sao Luiz Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 24/05 | Guarany de Bage Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 17/05 | Cianorte Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | Joinville Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 02/05 | Joinville Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 26/04 | Cianorte Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 19/04 | Guarany de Bage Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 11/04 | Sao Luiz Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |