Football · Brazil Serie D · 28/06, 21:00
Cianorte vs Sao Joseense
53%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cianorte 1526 · Sao Joseense 1477
| Cianorte | Draw | Sao Joseense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 38% | 11% |
| Market | 54% | 30% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.31 goals · Bet365 line 1.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals1.31Cianorte 0.98 · Sao Joseense 0.33
Over / Under 1.5Under 1.5 · 54%
BTTSNo · 61%
Most likely total1 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 88%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cianorte (rating 1526 vs 1477).
- Low estimate: 1.31 goals → consider Under 2.5.
- H2H favours Cianorte: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 11.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cianorte | Sao Joseense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.9 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.1 | 0.3 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5 | 1.3 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.6 / 0.3 | 5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cianorte 5–1–0 Sao Joseense
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/26 Brazil Serie D | Sao Joseense | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Cianorte |
| 16/01/26 Brazil Campeonato Paranaense | Sao Joseense | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Cianorte |
| 18/01/25 Brazil Campeonato Paranaense | Sao Joseense | 1-5 HT 0-2 | Cianorte |
| 17/01/24 Brazil Campeonato Paranaense | Sao Joseense | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Cianorte |
| 18/01/23 Brazil Campeonato Paranaense | Sao Joseense | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Cianorte |
| 27/02/22 Brazil Campeonato Paranaense | Cianorte | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Sao Joseense |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cianorte
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Sao Joseense Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 07/06 | Guarany de Bage Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Santa Catarina Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 23/05 | Joinville Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 9 | D |
| 17/05 | FC Cascavel Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 10/05 | Sao Luiz Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 12 | 6 | L |
| 07/05 | America MG Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste |
0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 03/05 | Sao Luiz Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 01/05 | EC Juventude Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste |
3-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | FC Cascavel Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
Sao Joseense
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Cianorte Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 07/06 | Marcilio Dias Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 01/06 | Sao Jose PA Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 20/05 | Azuriz FC Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Blumenau EC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 02/05 | Blumenau EC Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 26/04 | Azuriz FC Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 19/04 | Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 12/04 | Sao Jose PA Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |