Football · Brazil Serie D · 28/06, 21:30
Manauara EC vs Independencia
75%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Manauara EC 1581 · Independencia 1520
| Manauara EC | Draw | Independencia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 74% | 20% | 6% |
| Market | 76% | 16% | 7% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Profitable betsHigh-value bet — premium onlyGo premium to see it.
Expected goals2.35Manauara EC 1.96 · Independencia 0.39
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 76%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Manauara EC (rating 1581 vs 1520).
- Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Manauara EC | Independencia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.5 | 1.7 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.2 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 6.7 | 1.1 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.2 | 5.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Manauara EC 1–1–1 Independencia
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/26 Brazil Serie D | Independencia | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Manauara EC |
| 27/07/25 Brazil Serie D | Independencia | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Manauara EC |
| 19/04/25 Brazil Serie D | Manauara EC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Independencia |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Manauara EC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Independencia Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 14/06 | Sao Raimundo RR Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 31/05 | Monte Roraima Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | Manaus Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 7 | D |
| 16/05 | Nacional AM Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | GA Sampaio Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 4 | D |
| 05/05 | GA Sampaio Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Nacional AM Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 19/04 | Manaus Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 11/04 | Monte Roraima Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
Independencia
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Manauara EC Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 14/06 | Guaporé RO Brazil Serie D |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 31/05 | Humaita Brazil Serie D |
3-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | Galvez AC Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Araguaina Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 09/05 | Porto Velho EC Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Porto Velho EC Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 30/04 | GA Sampaio Brazil Copa Norte |
1-0 | 3-2 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 26/04 | Araguaina Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 19/04 | Galvez AC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |