Football · Brazil Serie D · 28/06, 22:00
Nacional AM vs Araguaina
60%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nacional AM 1534 · Araguaina 1508
| Nacional AM | Draw | Araguaina | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 27% | 14% |
| Market | 60% | 25% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.23 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.23Nacional AM 1.6 · Araguaina 0.64
Over / Under 2Over 2 · 52%
BTTSNo · 53%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 79%model estimate
Match keys
- Early goals: 1.7 combined avg at HT (0.3 + 1.4) → Over 0.5 HT.
- High corners: 12.4 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nacional AM | Araguaina | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.9 | 2.9 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.3 | 1.4 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 6.9 | 1.9 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.4 | 5.5 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacional AM 1–0–0 Araguaina
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/26 Brazil Serie D | Araguaina | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Nacional AM |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nacional AM
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Araguaina Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 14/06 | Monte Roraima Brazil Serie D |
3-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Manaus Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 29/05 | Paysandu Brazil Copa Norte |
0-2 | 2-4 | 10 | 8 | L |
| 23/05 | GA Sampaio Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 21/05 | Paysandu Brazil Copa Norte |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Manauara EC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Sao Raimundo RR Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 07/05 | Porto Velho EC Brazil Copa Norte |
0-1 | 3-1 | 17 | 7 | W |
| 03/05 | Sao Raimundo RR Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 3 | D |
Araguaina
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Nacional AM Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 14/06 | Galvez AC Brazil Serie D |
6-0 | 9-0 | – | – | W |
| 31/05 | Guaporé RO Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | Porto Velho EC Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 17/05 | Independencia Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 11/05 | Humaita Brazil Serie D |
3-0 | 7-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Humaita Brazil Serie D |
3-0 | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 30/04 | Vila Nova Brazil Copa Centro-Oeste |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 26/04 | Independencia Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 7 | D |
| 19/04 | Porto Velho EC Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |