Football · Brazil Serie D · 28/06, 22:00
Treze vs Jacuipense
56%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Treze 1529 · Jacuipense 1462
| Treze | Draw | Jacuipense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Market | 55% | 26% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Profitable betsOver 1.5 goals (1st half) · 42% · @2.69 · +14%
Expected goals2.96Treze 1.9 · Jacuipense 1.06
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Treze usually leads at HT (70%) while Jacuipense trails (60%): look at home at HT.
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Treze (rating 1529 vs 1462).
- Early goals: 1.5 combined avg at HT (1.2 + 0.3) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Treze | Jacuipense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.5 | 1.2 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/10/20% | 0/40/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.7 | 2.7 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.3 | 4.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Treze 1–1–1 Jacuipense
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/26 Brazil Serie D | Jacuipense | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Treze |
| 23/11/20 Brazil Serie C | Jacuipense | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Treze |
| 19/09/20 Brazil Serie C | Treze | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Jacuipense |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Treze
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Jacuipense Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 14/06 | Retro FC Brasil Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-3 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 06/06 | Decisao Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 30/05 | Lagarto Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 23/05 | CS Sergipe Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Serra Branca EC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 10/05 | Decisao Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 2-0 | 14 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Serra Branca EC Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 19/04 | CS Sergipe Brazil Serie D |
3-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 11/04 | Lagarto Brazil Serie D |
3-2 | 4-5 | 3 | 5 | L |
Jacuipense
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Treze Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 14/06 | ASA Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 31/05 | CSA Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 24/05 | Juazeirense Brazil Serie D |
1-2 | 2-2 | 14 | 6 | D |
| 17/05 | Atletico Alagoinhas Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 14/05 | Palmeiras Copa do Brasil |
0-3 | 1-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | CSE Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 03/05 | CSE Brazil Serie D |
1-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 30/04 | Imperatriz Brazil Copa Nordeste |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | Atletico Alagoinhas Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |