Football · Brazil Serie D · 27/06, 20:30
Trem AP vs Sampaio Correa
39%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Trem AP 1542 · Sampaio Correa 1491
| Trem AP | Draw | Sampaio Correa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 32% | 39% |
| Market | 30% | 31% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.17 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.17Trem AP 0.99 · Sampaio Correa 1.18
Over / Under 2Over 2 · 50%
BTTSYes · 50%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 75%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Trem AP (rating 1542 vs 1491).
- Early goals: 1.2 combined avg at HT (0.7 + 0.5) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Trem AP | Sampaio Correa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 30/70/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.7 | 2.2 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.3 | 4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Trem AP 1–0–0 Sampaio Correa
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/26 Brazil Serie D | Sampaio Correa | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Trem AP |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Trem AP
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Sampaio Correa Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Aguia de Maraba Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Tuna Luso Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 23/05 | Tocantinopolis EC Brazil Serie D |
2-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Oratorio RC Brazil Serie D |
1-2 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | Imperatriz Brazil Serie D |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 05/05 | Imperatriz Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 30/04 | Paysandu Brazil Copa Norte |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 26/04 | Oratorio RC Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 19/04 | Tocantinopolis EC Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
Sampaio Correa
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Trem AP Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 07/06 | Iguatu Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 31/05 | IAPE Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 3-1 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Moto Club Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Parnahyba Brazil Serie D |
2-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Maracanã Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 07/05 | Moto Club Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Maracanã Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 26/04 | Parnahyba Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 11/04 | IAPE Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |