Football · Brazil Serie D · 27/06, 23:00
XV Piracicaba vs America RJ
60%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · XV Piracicaba 1534 · America RJ 1469
| XV Piracicaba | Draw | America RJ | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 27% | 14% |
| Market | 60% | 26% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.24 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.24XV Piracicaba 1.59 · America RJ 0.64
Over / Under 2Over 2 · 52%
BTTSNo · 53%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 75%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours XV Piracicaba (rating 1534 vs 1469).
- High corners: 11.5 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| XV Piracicaba | America RJ | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 0.7 | 1.1 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.8 / 6 | 3 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.5 | 5.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · XV Piracicaba 0–1–0 America RJ
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/26 Brazil Serie D | America RJ | 1-1 HT 1-1 | XV Piracicaba |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
XV Piracicaba
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | America RJ Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 07/06 | Nova Iguacu Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 30/05 | Noroeste Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 24/05 | Velo Clube SP Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | Marica RJ Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Sampaio Correa RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 03/05 | Sampaio Correa RJ Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Marica RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Velo Clube SP Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 16/04 | EC Agua Santa Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
America RJ
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Araruama FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 20/06 | XV Piracicaba Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 13/06 | Olaria AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 10/06 | Cabofriense Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 06/06 | EC Agua Santa Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 03/06 | Sao Goncalo Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Portuguesa RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 28/05 | Resende RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Portuguesa Desportos Brazil Serie D |
1-2 | 1-4 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 20/05 | Marica RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |