Football · USA USL League Two · 27/06, 21:00
Midwest United vs Union FC Macomb
63%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Midwest United 1509 · Union FC Macomb 1432
| Midwest United | Draw | Union FC Macomb | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 20% | 18% |
| Market | 63% | 19% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.76 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.76Midwest United 2.48 · Union FC Macomb 1.28
Over / Under 3.5Over 3.5 · 52%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Midwest United (rating 1509 vs 1432).
- High estimate: 3.76 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Midwest United: 4-0-1.
- Early goals: 1.6 combined avg at HT (0.9 + 0.7) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Midwest United | Union FC Macomb | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.3 | 1.6 / 2.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.3 | 0.7 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.7 / 3 | 2.3 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0 | 3.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Midwest United 4–0–1 Union FC Macomb
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/06/26 USA USL League Two | Union FC Macomb | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Midwest United |
| 14/06/25 USA USL League Two | Union FC Macomb | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Midwest United |
| 08/05/25 USA USL League Two | Midwest United | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Union FC Macomb |
| 02/06/24 USA USL League Two | Union FC Macomb | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Midwest United |
| 09/05/24 USA USL League Two | Midwest United | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Union FC Macomb |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Midwest United
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Kalamazoo FC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 19/06 | Lansing City Football USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 5-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 13/06 | AFC Ann Arbor USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/06 | Oakland County FC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 07/06 | Flint City Bucks USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 03/06 | Union FC Macomb USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 28/05 | Kalamazoo FC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 20/05 | AFC Ann Arbor USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Lansing City Football USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 18/07 | Fort Wayne FC USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
Union FC Macomb
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Lansing City Football USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 2-3 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 21/06 | Oakland County FC USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 07/06 | Kalamazoo FC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 2-7 | – | – | L |
| 03/06 | Midwest United USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 0-4 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 30/05 | AFC Ann Arbor USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Flint City Bucks USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Oakland County FC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 14/05 | Kalamazoo FC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 13/07 | Northern Indiana FC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 09/07 | AFC Ann Arbor USA USL League Two |
2-1 | 4-2 | 5 | 4 | W |