⚽ Football · USA USL League Two · 25/06, 03:00
Marin FC Legends vs San Juan FC
46%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marin FC Legends 1457 · San Juan FC 1407
| Marin FC Legends | Draw | San Juan FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 21% | 26% |
| Market | 40% | 24% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.59 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.59Marin FC Legends 2.15 · San Juan FC 1.45
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 55%
BTTSYes · 68%
Likely score2-1
💎 ValueMarin FC Legends +6.2%The model gives this bet 6.2% more probability than its odds (2.25) pay: the bookie has it underpriced.
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marin FC Legends (rating 1457 vs 1407).
- High estimate: 3.59 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours San Juan FC: 2-0-0.
- Early goals: 1.4 avg at HT → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Marin FC Legends | San Juan FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 3 | 0.9 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 1.4 | 0.3 / 1.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 10/20/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 2.4 | 0.8 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.2 | 4 / 0.5 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Marin FC Legends 0–0–2 San Juan FC
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06/25 USA USL League Two | Marin FC Legends | 1-5 HT 1-2 | San Juan FC |
| 19/05/25 USA USL League Two | San Juan FC | 9-2 HT 5-1 | Marin FC Legends |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Marin FC Legends
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06 | Davis Legacy USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 11/06 | San Francisco City FC USA USL League Two |
0-5 | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 07/06 | Almaden SC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 04/06 | Project 51O USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 2-5 | – | – | L |
| 01/06 | Academica SC USA USL League Two |
2-3 | 5-3 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Davis Legacy USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 2-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 21/05 | San Francisco Glens SC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 13/07 | Monterey Bay FC II USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 10/07 | San Francisco Glens SC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 2-4 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 06/07 | Davis Legacy USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
San Juan FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06 | San Francisco City FC USA USL League Two |
1-3 | 2-6 | – | – | L |
| 15/06 | Almaden SC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 12/06 | Project 51O USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 07/06 | Academica SC USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 31/05 | Almaden SC USA USL League Two |
0-3 | 0-4 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 21/05 | Project 51O USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 14/05 | San Francisco Glens SC USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 08/05 | Davis Legacy USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 04/05 | San Francisco City FC USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 19/07 | Ventura County Fusion USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |