Football · USA USL League Two · 28/06, 22:00
Philadelphia Lone Star FC vs Ocean City Nor'easters
72%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Philadelphia Lone Star FC 1455 · Ocean City Nor'easters 1605
| Philadelphia Lone Star FC | Draw | Ocean City Nor'easters | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 12% | 16% | 72% |
| Market | 12% | 16% | 72% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.05 goals · Bet365 line 4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.05Philadelphia Lone Star FC 1.17 · Ocean City Nor'easters 2.88
Over / Under 4Under 4 · 52%
BTTSYes · 58%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Ocean City Nor'easters usually leads at HT (80%) while Philadelphia Lone Star FC trails (50%): look at away at HT.
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ocean City Nor'easters (rating 1455 vs 1605).
- High estimate: 4.05 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Ocean City Nor'easters: 6-0-0.
- Early goals: 2.9 combined avg at HT (1.1 + 1.8) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Philadelphia Lone Star FC | Ocean City Nor'easters | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 2.6 | 2.8 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 1.3 | 1.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 80/10/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.2 | 3.8 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.4 | 2.5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Philadelphia Lone Star FC 0–0–6 Ocean City Nor'easters
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 USA USL League Two | Ocean City Nor'easters | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Philadelphia Lone Star FC |
| 04/07/24 USA USL League Two | Philadelphia Lone Star FC | 0-4 HT 0-0 | Ocean City Nor'easters |
| 16/06/24 USA USL League Two | Philadelphia Lone Star FC | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Ocean City Nor'easters |
| 26/05/24 USA USL League Two | Ocean City Nor'easters | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Philadelphia Lone Star FC |
| 08/07/23 USA USL League Two | Ocean City Nor'easters | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Philadelphia Lone Star FC |
| 21/06/23 USA USL League Two | Philadelphia Lone Star FC | 1-4 HT 0-2 | Ocean City Nor'easters |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Philadelphia Lone Star FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Delaware FC USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 0-5 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 17/06 | West Chester United USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 14/06 | Real Central NJ USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 10/06 | LVU Rush USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 06/06 | LVU Rush USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 04/06 | PA Classics USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 31/05 | PA Classics USA USL League Two |
5-1 | 6-2 | – | – | W |
| 27/05 | Delaware FC USA USL League Two |
2-2 | 2-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Ocean City Nor'easters USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Eagle FC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
Ocean City Nor'easters
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | West Chester United USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 21/06 | Reading United USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 19/06 | Real Central NJ USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | Delaware FC USA USL League Two |
3-2 | 3-2 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 11/06 | Reading United USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 07/06 | PA Classics USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/06 | Real Central NJ USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | Delaware FC USA USL League Two |
3-1 | 5-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Philadelphia Lone Star FC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 16/07 | Hudson Valley Hammers USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 5 | L |