Football · USA USL League Two · 02/07, 01:00
Connecticut Rush vs AC Connecticut
Expected goals: 3.09 (Connecticut Rush 2.04 · AC Connecticut 1.05). The model gives 60% home, 22% draw, 18% away. Over 3 goals (50%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 1-1.
60%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Connecticut Rush 1479 · AC Connecticut 1392
| Connecticut Rush | Draw | AC Connecticut | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Market | 60% | 21% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.09 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.09Connecticut Rush 2.04 · AC Connecticut 1.05
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 50%
BTTSYes · 55%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Connecticut Rush (rating 1479 vs 1392).
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Connecticut Rush | AC Connecticut | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.6 | 1.4 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3 | 2.5 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.3 | 2.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Connecticut Rush 1–0–0 AC Connecticut
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/26 USA USL League Two | AC Connecticut | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Connecticut Rush |
Standings · USA USL League Two · USL League Two 2026, Northeast Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vermont Green | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 50 | 8 | 31 |
| 2 | New England FC | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 15 | 30 |
| 3 | Western Mass Pioneers | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 20 |
| 4 | Black Rock FC | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 12 | 17 |
| 5 | Albany Rush | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 32 | 19 |
| 6 | Connecticut Rush | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 18 | 14 |
| 7 | Boston Bolts | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 24 | 11 |
| 8 | Seacoast United Phantoms | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 23 | 10 |
| 9 | AC Connecticut | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 15 | 27 | 3 |
| 10 | Boston City FC | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 40 | 3 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Connecticut Rush | AC Connecticut |
|---|---|---|
| Boston City FC | 1-1 D | 4-0 W |
| Albany Rush | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Western Mass Pioneers | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Boston Bolts | 3-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Seacoast United Phantoms | 2-3 L | 3-4 L |
| Black Rock FC | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 1 W 0 D 5 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Connecticut Rush
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Boston City FC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 25/06 | New England FC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 21/06 | Albany Rush USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/06 | Western Mass Pioneers USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 11/06 | Boston Bolts USA USL League Two |
2-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 07/06 | Seacoast United Phantoms USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 04/06 | New England FC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | Western Mass Pioneers USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 27/05 | Seacoast United Phantoms USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 24/05 | Black Rock FC USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 9 | L |
AC Connecticut
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Western Mass Pioneers USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 24/06 | Black Rock FC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 21/06 | Black Rock FC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 18/06 | Albany Rush USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 14/06 | Seacoast United Phantoms USA USL League Two |
2-1 | 3-4 | – | – | L |
| 11/06 | Vermont Green USA USL League Two |
1-3 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 07/06 | Boston Bolts USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 31/05 | Boston City FC USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 28/05 | Albany Rush USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 21/05 | Connecticut Rush USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |