⚽ Football · USA USL League Two · 27/06, 01:30
Western Mass Pioneers vs AC Connecticut
69%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Western Mass Pioneers 1546 · AC Connecticut 1399
| Western Mass Pioneers | Draw | AC Connecticut | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 18% | 16% |
| Market | 72% | 16% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.02 goals · Bet365 line 4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💰 bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals4.02Western Mass Pioneers 2.68 · AC Connecticut 1.34
Over / Under 4Under 4 · 53%
BTTSYes · 69%
Most likely total4 goals
🔑 Match keys
- Western Mass Pioneers usually leads at HT (70%) while AC Connecticut trails (50%): look at home at HT.
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Western Mass Pioneers (rating 1546 vs 1399).
- High estimate: 4.02 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Western Mass Pioneers: 6-0-0.
- Early goals: 2.1 combined avg at HT (1.2 + 0.9) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Western Mass Pioneers | AC Connecticut | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.4 | 1.5 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/10/20% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.1 | 1.8 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.1 | 2.6 / 0 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Western Mass Pioneers 6–0–0 AC Connecticut
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06/25 USA USL League Two | AC Connecticut | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Western Mass Pioneers |
| 10/07/24 USA USL League Two | AC Connecticut | 0-3 HT 0-3 | Western Mass Pioneers |
| 12/06/24 USA USL League Two | Western Mass Pioneers | 5-0 HT 2-0 | AC Connecticut |
| 16/07/23 USA USL League Two | Western Mass Pioneers | 5-1 HT 3-0 | AC Connecticut |
| 11/06/23 USA USL League Two | AC Connecticut | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Western Mass Pioneers |
| 16/07/22 USA USL League Two | Western Mass Pioneers | 4-0 HT 2-0 | AC Connecticut |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Western Mass Pioneers
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Albany Rush USA USL League Two |
1-3 | 3-4 | – | – | L |
| 20/06 | Boston Bolts USA USL League Two |
2-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 18/06 | Connecticut Rush USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 11/06 | Boston City FC USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 5-2 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 04/06 | Black Rock FC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 30/05 | Connecticut Rush USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | New England FC USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 2-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 21/05 | Seacoast United Phantoms USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Albany Rush USA USL League Two |
2-1 | 4-2 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 16/07 | Long Island Rough Riders USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
AC Connecticut
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Black Rock FC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 21/06 | Black Rock FC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 18/06 | Albany Rush USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 14/06 | Seacoast United Phantoms USA USL League Two |
2-1 | 3-4 | – | – | L |
| 11/06 | Vermont Green USA USL League Two |
1-3 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 07/06 | Boston Bolts USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 31/05 | Boston City FC USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 28/05 | Albany Rush USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 21/05 | Connecticut Rush USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | New England FC USA USL League Two |
1-3 | 1-4 | 0 | 2 | L |