Football · USA USL League Two · 27/06, 17:00
New Jersey Copa vs Ironbound
60%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · New Jersey Copa 1434 · Ironbound 1572
| New Jersey Copa | Draw | Ironbound | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 19% | 22% | 59% |
| Market | 20% | 20% | 60% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.33 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.33New Jersey Copa 1.17 · Ironbound 2.16
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 53%
BTTSYes · 57%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ironbound (rating 1434 vs 1572).
- High estimate: 3.33 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Ironbound: 3-1-1.
- Early goals: 1.9 combined avg at HT (0.6 + 1.3) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| New Jersey Copa | Ironbound | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 2.8 | 2 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1.3 | 1.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 50/50/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.8 / 3.8 | 2.3 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.5 | 3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · New Jersey Copa 1–1–3 Ironbound
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06/26 USA USL League Two | Ironbound | 4-1 HT 2-1 | New Jersey Copa |
| 08/06/25 USA USL League Two | Ironbound | 2-2 HT 1-1 | New Jersey Copa |
| 15/06/24 USA USL League Two | New Jersey Copa | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Ironbound |
| 28/05/23 USA USL League Two | New Jersey Copa | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Ironbound |
| 21/05/23 USA USL League Two | Ironbound | 0-5 HT 0-1 | New Jersey Copa |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
New Jersey Copa
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Morris Elite USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 20/06 | FC Motown STA USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 16/06 | Staten Island ASC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/06 | Ironbound USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 07/06 | Westchester Flames USA USL League Two |
2-2 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 02/06 | Cedar Stars Rush USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 30/05 | Hudson Valley Hammers USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 20/05 | Long Island Rough Riders USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 10 | L |
| 12/07 | FC Motown STA USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 1-7 | – | – | L |
| 10/07 | Morris Elite USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
Ironbound
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | FC Motown STA USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/06 | Westchester Flames USA USL League Two |
3-2 | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 14/06 | Cedar Stars Rush USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/06 | New Jersey Copa USA USL League Two |
2-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 31/05 | Long Island Rough Riders USA USL League Two |
2-2 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 28/05 | Hudson Valley Hammers USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 21/05 | Morris Elite USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 17/05 | Staten Island ASC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 10/07 | Manhattan SC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 03/07 | Morris Elite USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |