Football · USA USL League Two · 28/06, 22:00
Seacoast United Phantoms vs Black Rock FC
47%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Seacoast United Phantoms 1478 · Black Rock FC 1554
| Seacoast United Phantoms | Draw | Black Rock FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Market | 29% | 24% | 47% |
Estimated total (ours)
3 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3Seacoast United Phantoms 1.29 · Black Rock FC 1.71
Over / Under 3Under 3 · 51%
BTTSYes · 56%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Black Rock FC (rating 1478 vs 1554).
- H2H favours Seacoast United Phantoms: 4-1-1.
- Early goals: 1.2 combined avg at HT (0.2 + 1) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Seacoast United Phantoms | Black Rock FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 2 | 2 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 1.1 | 1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/50/50% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.5 | 1.6 / 3.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.5 / 0.3 | 4.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Seacoast United Phantoms 4–1–1 Black Rock FC
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07/25 USA USL League Two | Black Rock FC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Seacoast United Phantoms |
| 04/06/25 USA USL League Two | Seacoast United Phantoms | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Black Rock FC |
| 01/07/24 USA USL League Two | Seacoast United Phantoms | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Black Rock FC |
| 04/06/24 USA USL League Two | Black Rock FC | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Seacoast United Phantoms |
| 30/06/23 USA USL League Two | Black Rock FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Seacoast United Phantoms |
| 17/06/23 USA USL League Two | Seacoast United Phantoms | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Black Rock FC |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Seacoast United Phantoms
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Boston Bolts USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 17/06 | Vermont Green USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 14/06 | AC Connecticut USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 4-3 | – | – | W |
| 11/06 | New England FC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 07/06 | Connecticut Rush USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 31/05 | Albany Rush USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 27/05 | Connecticut Rush USA USL League Two |
0-3 | 1-3 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 21/05 | Western Mass Pioneers USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 16/05 | Vermont Green USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 14/05 | New England FC USA USL League Two |
1-3 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
Black Rock FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | AC Connecticut USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 21/06 | AC Connecticut USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 11/06 | Albany Rush USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 07/06 | New England FC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 04/06 | Western Mass Pioneers USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 31/05 | Boston Bolts USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 28/05 | Vermont Green USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 24/05 | Connecticut Rush USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 13/07 | Boston Bolts USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 10/07 | AC Connecticut USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 4-1 | 1 | 3 | W |