Football · USA USL League Two · 01/07, 01:00
Boston Bolts vs Western Mass Pioneers
Expected goals: 3.22 (Boston Bolts 1.15 · Western Mass Pioneers 2.06). The model gives 20% home, 22% draw, 58% away. Over 3 goals (51%) and both teams to score (56%). Most likely score: 1-1.
58%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Boston Bolts 1476 · Western Mass Pioneers 1545
| Boston Bolts | Draw | Western Mass Pioneers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 20% | 23% | 57% |
| Market | 21% | 21% | 58% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.22Boston Bolts 1.15 · Western Mass Pioneers 2.06
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 51%
BTTSYes · 56%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Western Mass Pioneers (rating 1476 vs 1545).
- H2H favours Western Mass Pioneers: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Boston Bolts | Western Mass Pioneers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 2 | 2 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 1 | 1.2 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 70/10/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.8 / 6.2 | 2.8 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.3 | 2.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Boston Bolts 0–2–4 Western Mass Pioneers
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/26 USA USL League Two | Western Mass Pioneers | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Boston Bolts |
| 21/06/25 USA USL League Two | Western Mass Pioneers | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Boston Bolts |
| 04/06/25 USA USL League Two | Boston Bolts | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Western Mass Pioneers |
| 15/05/24 USA USL League Two | Boston Bolts | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Western Mass Pioneers |
| 08/06/23 USA USL League Two | Western Mass Pioneers | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Boston Bolts |
| 17/05/23 USA USL League Two | Boston Bolts | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Western Mass Pioneers |
Standings · USA USL League Two · USL League Two 2026, Northeast Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vermont Green | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 50 | 8 | 31 |
| 2 | New England FC | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 15 | 30 |
| 3 | Western Mass Pioneers | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 20 |
| 4 | Black Rock FC | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 12 | 17 |
| 5 | Albany Rush | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 32 | 19 |
| 6 | Connecticut Rush | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 18 | 14 |
| 7 | Boston Bolts | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 24 | 11 |
| 8 | Seacoast United Phantoms | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 23 | 10 |
| 9 | AC Connecticut | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 15 | 27 | 3 |
| 10 | Boston City FC | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 40 | 3 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Boston Bolts | Western Mass Pioneers |
|---|---|---|
| Albany Rush | 0-1 L | 3-4 L |
| Seacoast United Phantoms | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Boston City FC | 4-2 W | 5-2 W |
| Connecticut Rush | 1-3 L | 1-0 W |
| AC Connecticut | 3-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Black Rock FC | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| New England FC | 1-2 L | 2-4 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 4 L | 4 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Western Mass Pioneers (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Boston Bolts
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Albany Rush USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 26/06 | Seacoast United Phantoms USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 20/06 | Western Mass Pioneers USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 17/06 | Boston City FC USA USL League Two |
2-1 | 4-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 11/06 | Connecticut Rush USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 07/06 | AC Connecticut USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 03/06 | Vermont Green USA USL League Two |
0-3 | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 31/05 | Black Rock FC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 28/05 | New England FC USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Boston City FC USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
Western Mass Pioneers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | AC Connecticut USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 24/06 | Albany Rush USA USL League Two |
1-3 | 3-4 | – | – | L |
| 20/06 | Boston Bolts USA USL League Two |
2-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 18/06 | Connecticut Rush USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 11/06 | Boston City FC USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 5-2 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 04/06 | Black Rock FC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 30/05 | Connecticut Rush USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | New England FC USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 2-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 21/05 | Seacoast United Phantoms USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Albany Rush USA USL League Two |
2-1 | 4-2 | 9 | 2 | W |