Football · USA USL League Two · 02/07, 02:00
GFI Academy vs AHFC Royals
Expected goals: 3.57 (GFI Academy 1.84 · AHFC Royals 1.72). The model gives 41% home, 24% draw, 36% away. Over 3 goals (54%) and both teams to score (60%). Most likely score: 1-1.
41%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · GFI Academy 1570 · AHFC Royals 1529
| GFI Academy | Draw | AHFC Royals | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 24% | 36% |
| Market | 41% | 24% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.57 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.57GFI Academy 1.84 · AHFC Royals 1.72
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 54%
BTTSYes · 60%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours GFI Academy (rating 1570 vs 1529).
- H2H favours AHFC Royals: 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| GFI Academy | AHFC Royals | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3 / 1.5 | 2.3 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.8 | 1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 44/33/22% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6 | 2 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 1 | 7.3 / 1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · GFI Academy 0–0–2 AHFC Royals
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06/25 USA USL League Two | AHFC Royals | 4-1 HT 3-0 | GFI Academy |
| 29/05/25 USA USL League Two | GFI Academy | 2-5 HT 1-1 | AHFC Royals |
Standings · USA USL League Two · USL League Two 2026, Lone Star Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Laredo Heat | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 4 | 23 |
| 2 | GFI Academy | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 28 | 12 | 21 |
| 3 | Lonestar SC | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 20 | 14 | 19 |
| 4 | AHFC Royals | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 12 | 16 |
| 5 | San Antonio FC II | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 14 |
| 6 | Houston FC | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 19 | 8 |
| 7 | Hill Country Lobos | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 27 | 8 |
| 8 | Twin City Toucans | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 20 | 6 |
| 9 | AC Houston Sur | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 32 | 1 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | GFI Academy | AHFC Royals |
|---|---|---|
| San Antonio FC II | 2-2 D | 5-2 W |
| Twin City Toucans | 2-0 W | 6-1 W |
| Hill Country Lobos | 4-0 W | 2-2 D |
| AC Houston Sur | 8-3 W | 2-0 W |
| Houston FC | 6-3 W | 1-1 D |
| Lonestar SC | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 0 L | 3 W 3 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: GFI Academy (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
GFI Academy
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | San Antonio FC II USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 25/06 | Twin City Toucans USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 21/06 | Hill Country Lobos USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/06 | AC Houston Sur USA USL League Two |
3-2 | 8-3 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 11/06 | Houston FC USA USL League Two |
3-1 | 6-3 | – | – | W |
| 04/06 | Lonestar SC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 31/05 | Hill Country Lobos USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 24/05 | Twin City Toucans USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/05 | Houston FC USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 4-3 | – | – | W |
| 13/07 | Hill Country Lobos USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
AHFC Royals
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Laredo Heat USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 25/06 | AC Houston Sur USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 11 | W |
| 22/06 | San Antonio FC II USA USL League Two |
2-1 | 5-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 11/06 | Hill Country Lobos USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 07/06 | Lonestar SC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 04/06 | AC Houston Sur USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 31/05 | Laredo Heat USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 11 | L |
| 21/05 | Twin City Toucans USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/05 | Hill Country Lobos USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 14/05 | Houston FC USA USL League Two |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |