Football · USA USL League Two · 01/07, 03:00
Snohomish United vs Tacoma Stars
Expected goals: 4.08 (Snohomish United 2.81 · Tacoma Stars 1.27). The model gives 69% home, 16% draw, 15% away. Over 4 goals (50%) and both teams to score (59%). Most likely score: 2-1.
69%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Snohomish United 1594 · Tacoma Stars 1476
| Snohomish United | Draw | Tacoma Stars | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 17% | 14% |
| Market | 70% | 16% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.08 goals · Bet365 line 4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.08Snohomish United 2.81 · Tacoma Stars 1.27
Over / Under 4Over 4 · 50%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Snohomish United (rating 1594 vs 1476).
- H2H favours Snohomish United: 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Snohomish United | Tacoma Stars | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 1 | 2 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.8 / 4.7 | 2 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.1 | 4.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Snohomish United 2–0–0 Tacoma Stars
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/25 USA USL League Two | Snohomish United | 5-1 HT 2-1 | Tacoma Stars |
| 12/05/25 USA USL League Two | Tacoma Stars | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Snohomish United |
Standings · USA USL League Two · USL League Two 2026, Northwest Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Snohomish United | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 8 | 24 |
| 2 | Ballard FC | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 10 | 28 |
| 3 | Portland Bangers | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 21 |
| 4 | Tacoma Stars | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 18 | 12 |
| 5 | Midlakes United | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 22 | 10 |
| 6 | FC Olympia | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 16 | 30 | 10 |
| 7 | West Seattle Junction FC | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 18 | 8 |
| 8 | Bigfoot FC | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 5 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Snohomish United | Tacoma Stars |
|---|---|---|
| Bigfoot FC | 3-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Midlakes United | 4-0 W | 1-1 D |
| West Seattle Junction FC | 3-2 W | 1-2 L |
| Ballard FC | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| FC Olympia | 5-0 W | 5-4 W |
| Portland Bangers | 0-1 L | 3-4 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Snohomish United (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Snohomish United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Bigfoot FC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 24/06 | Midlakes United USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 15/06 | West Seattle Junction FC USA USL League Two |
2-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 10 | W |
| 11/06 | Ballard FC USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 08/06 | FC Olympia USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Midlakes United USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | Bigfoot FC USA USL League Two |
1-3 | 5-3 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | FC Olympia USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Portland Bangers USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 20/07 | Ballard FC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
Tacoma Stars
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | West Seattle Junction FC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 10 | L |
| 21/06 | Bigfoot FC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 13/06 | FC Olympia USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 5-4 | – | – | W |
| 08/06 | Bigfoot FC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 04/06 | Ballard FC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 31/05 | Portland Bangers USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 3-4 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 29/05 | FC Olympia USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 25/05 | Portland Bangers USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 23/05 | Midlakes United USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 11/05 | West Seattle Junction FC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |