Football · Finland Cup · 30/06, 17:00
VPS Vaasa vs FC Inter
Expected goals: 3.13 (VPS Vaasa 1.31 · FC Inter 1.81). The model gives 26% home, 27% draw, 47% away. Over 2 goals (64%) and both teams to score (57%). Most likely score: 1-1.
47%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · VPS Vaasa 1572 · FC Inter 1582
| VPS Vaasa | Draw | FC Inter | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 25% | 48% |
| Market | 25% | 28% | 47% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.13 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +1.1
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.13VPS Vaasa 1.31 · FC Inter 1.81
Over / Under 2Over 2 · 64%
BTTSYes · 57%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours FC Inter: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| VPS Vaasa | FC Inter | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.8 / 1.1 | 1.9 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.5 | 1.1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.3 | 2 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.2 | 4.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · VPS Vaasa 1–1–4 FC Inter
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Finland Veikkausliiga | FC Inter | 0-0 HT 0-0 | VPS Vaasa |
| 31/08/25 Finland Veikkausliiga | FC Inter | 2-1 HT 0-0 | VPS Vaasa |
| 19/04/25 Finland Veikkausliiga | VPS Vaasa | 0-2 HT 0-1 | FC Inter |
| 12/03/25 Europe Friendlies | FC Inter | 4-2 HT 1-1 | VPS Vaasa |
| 28/06/24 Finland Veikkausliiga | FC Inter | 3-1 HT 2-0 | VPS Vaasa |
| 27/05/24 Finland Veikkausliiga | VPS Vaasa | 3-1 HT 2-0 | FC Inter |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | VPS Vaasa | FC Inter |
|---|---|---|
| AC Oulu | 5-1 W | 0-0 D |
| SJK | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| KuPS Kuopio | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| TPS | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| HJK Helsinki | 2-1 W | 3-3 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 4 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: VPS Vaasa (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
VPS Vaasa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 23/06 | AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga |
3-1 | 5-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 17/06 | SJK Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 10/06 | KuPS Kuopio Finland Cup |
0-0 | 5-4 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 30/05 | TPS Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 26/05 | FC Haka Finland Cup |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 22/05 | HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 18/05 | FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 13/05 | AIFK Finland Cup |
6-0 | 7-0 | 12 | 0 | W |
FC Inter
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 23/06 | SJK Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 17/06 | HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga |
2-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 13/06 | AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 10/06 | SJK Finland Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 30/05 | KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 26/05 | EBK Finland Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 13 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | TPS Finland Veikkausliiga |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 20/05 | FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga |
2-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | SJK Finland Veikkausliiga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 2 | W |