Football · Finland Cup · 01/07, 18:00
HJK Helsinki vs FC Ilves
Expected goals: 3.95 (HJK Helsinki 2.36 · FC Ilves 1.59). The model gives 53% home, 23% draw, 24% away. Over 3 goals (60%) and both teams to score (61%). Most likely score: 2-1.
53%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · HJK Helsinki 1556 · FC Ilves 1537
| HJK Helsinki | Draw | FC Ilves | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 21% | 25% |
| Market | 53% | 24% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.95 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +1
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.95HJK Helsinki 2.36 · FC Ilves 1.59
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 60%
BTTSYes · 61%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours FC Ilves: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| HJK Helsinki | FC Ilves | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.8 / 1.5 | 2.2 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.7 / 0.7 | 1.3 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 7.5 | 1.8 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.3 | 3.5 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · HJK Helsinki 1–2–3 FC Ilves
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 Finland Veikkausliiga | HJK Helsinki | 2-2 HT 1-1 | FC Ilves |
| 30/10/25 Finland Veikkausliiga | FC Ilves | 3-1 HT 1-1 | HJK Helsinki |
| 29/09/25 Finland Veikkausliiga | HJK Helsinki | 2-2 HT 1-1 | FC Ilves |
| 11/08/25 Finland Veikkausliiga | HJK Helsinki | 5-1 HT 0-0 | FC Ilves |
| 05/04/25 Finland Veikkausliiga | FC Ilves | 3-2 HT 1-2 | HJK Helsinki |
| 28/09/24 Finland Veikkausliiga | HJK Helsinki | 0-1 HT 0-0 | FC Ilves |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | HJK Helsinki | FC Ilves |
|---|---|---|
| KuPS Kuopio | 0-4 L | 3-4 L |
| FC Inter | 3-3 D | 1-3 L |
| FF Jaro | 5-2 W | 5-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Ilves (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
HJK Helsinki
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-1 | 0-4 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 23/06 | IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 17/06 | FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-2 | 3-3 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 13/06 | FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-2 | 5-2 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 09/06 | FC Honka Finland Cup |
4-1 | 7-1 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 30/05 | IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 26/05 | MyPa Finland Cup |
6-0 | 11-1 | 13 | 1 | W |
| 22/05 | VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 16/05 | FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 13/05 | RoPS Finland Cup |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
FC Ilves
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | SJK Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 23/06 | KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-4 | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 17/06 | FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga |
4-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | TPS Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 10/06 | FC Lahti Finland Cup |
4-2 | 5-2 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 30/05 | FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga |
0-3 | 0-5 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 27/05 | TPS Finland Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 20/05 | FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |