Football · USA USL League Two · 28/06, 03:30
Midlakes United vs Ballard FC
64%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Midlakes United 1452 · Ballard FC 1603
| Midlakes United | Draw | Ballard FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 15% | 22% | 63% |
| Market | 16% | 20% | 64% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.02 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.02Midlakes United 0.94 · Ballard FC 2.08
Over / Under 3Under 3 · 53%
BTTSYes · 53%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Ballard FC usually leads at HT (80%) while Midlakes United trails (50%): look at away at HT.
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ballard FC (rating 1452 vs 1603).
- H2H favours Ballard FC: 5-0-0.
- Early goals: 2.3 combined avg at HT (0.9 + 1.4) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Midlakes United | Ballard FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.9 | 2.4 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.9 | 1.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 80/0/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 4 | 2.4 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 3.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Midlakes United 0–0–5 Ballard FC
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05/26 USA USL League Two | Ballard FC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Midlakes United |
| 06/07/25 USA USL League Two | Ballard FC | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Midlakes United |
| 30/05/25 USA USL League Two | Midlakes United | 0-5 HT 0-3 | Ballard FC |
| 29/06/24 USA USL League Two | Midlakes United | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Ballard FC |
| 25/05/24 USA USL League Two | Ballard FC | 4-1 HT 1-1 | Midlakes United |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Midlakes United
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Snohomish United USA USL League Two |
0-3 | 0-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 21/06 | FC Olympia USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 13/06 | West Seattle Junction FC USA USL League Two |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 07/06 | West Seattle Junction FC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 06/06 | Snohomish United USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 03/06 | Portland Bangers USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 30/05 | Ballard FC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 27/05 | Bigfoot FC USA USL League Two |
5-0 | 6-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Tacoma Stars USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 20/05 | FC Olympia USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 1 | W |
Ballard FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | West Seattle Junction FC USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 3-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 22/06 | West Seattle Junction FC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 19/06 | Bigfoot FC USA USL League Two |
5-1 | 6-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 15/06 | Portland Bangers USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/06 | Snohomish United USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 07/06 | Portland Bangers USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 04/06 | Tacoma Stars USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 01/06 | FC Olympia USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | Midlakes United USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | FC Olympia USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 1 | W |