Football · Iceland 1 Deild · 29/06, 21:15
Afturelding vs KF Aegir
69%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Afturelding 1582 · KF Aegir 1461
| Afturelding | Draw | KF Aegir | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 18% | 13% |
| Market | 69% | 18% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.57 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.57Afturelding 2.53 · KF Aegir 1.03
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 52%
BTTSYes · 56%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Afturelding (rating 1582 vs 1461).
- High estimate: 3.57 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Afturelding: 3-0-0.
- Early goals: 1.9 combined avg at HT (1.3 + 0.6) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg → Over corners.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Afturelding | KF Aegir | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.9 / 1.3 | 1.3 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6.9 | 1.3 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.3 | 3.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Afturelding 3–0–0 KF Aegir
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/23 Iceland 1 Deild | Afturelding | 5-0 HT 1-0 | KF Aegir |
| 07/07/23 Iceland 1 Deild | KF Aegir | 1-4 HT 0-0 | Afturelding |
| 13/05/14 Iceland Cup | KF Aegir | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Afturelding |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Afturelding
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Njardvik Iceland 1 Deild |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 21/06 | IF Vestri Iceland 1 Deild |
0-0 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 10/06 | Stjarnan Iceland Cup |
0-1 | 3-1 | 0 | 9 | W |
| 05/06 | HK Kopavogur Iceland 1 Deild |
1-1 | 1-2 | 13 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | Fylkir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild |
4-0 | 5-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 27/05 | Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild |
2-0 | 3-1 | 12 | 6 | W |
| 22/05 | Throttur Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild |
3-2 | 4-3 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 18/05 | Grotta Seltjarnarnes Iceland 1 Deild |
2-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 13/05 | Njardvik Iceland Cup |
1-0 | 5-2 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 08/05 | Leiknir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild |
0-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 4 | W |
KF Aegir
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 21/06 | Throttur Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild |
1-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 17/06 | IF Vestri Iceland 1 Deild |
1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 12/06 | Breidablik Iceland Cup |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 05/06 | Leiknir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 31/05 | Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild |
2-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 27/05 | IR Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild |
0-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Njardvik Iceland 1 Deild |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 17/05 | IF Vestri Iceland 1 Deild |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 14/05 | KA Akureyri Iceland Cup |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |