⚽ Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 25/06, 11:00
Darwin Hearts vs Port Darwin FC
53%2
Pick: 2 · 53%
Over 2.5 · 91%
Both to score Yes
Score: 2-3
💎 +13.3%
🧠 Model analysisExpected goals: 5.65 (Darwin Hearts 2.45 · Port Darwin FC 3.2). The model gives 30% home, 16% draw, 53% away. Recommendation: Port Darwin FC (53%, media confidence). Over 2.5 goals (91%) and both teams to score (87%). Most likely score: 2-3. 💎 Value spotted on Port Darwin FC: +13.3% over the odds (2.25).
🔑 Match keys
- Value on Port Darwin FC: the model gives +13.3% over odds 2.25.
- Estimate (5.65) is far from Bet365's line (4): possible value on Over 4.
- High estimate: 5.65 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Darwin Hearts: 4-0-2.
- Early goals: 2.7 avg at HT → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Darwin Hearts | Port Darwin FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 2.5 | 3.9 / 2.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 1.6 | 1.7 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 6.2 | 2.8 / 7.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0.1 | 2.1 / 0.1 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Darwin Hearts 4–0–2 Port Darwin FC
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | Port Darwin FC | 4-3 | Darwin Hearts |
| 18/07/25 | Darwin Hearts | 5-1 | Port Darwin FC |
| 16/05/25 | Port Darwin FC | 1-0 | Darwin Hearts |
| 15/03/25 | Darwin Hearts | 4-0 | Port Darwin FC |
| 07/09/24 | Darwin Hearts | 2-0 | Port Darwin FC |
| 24/05/24 | Port Darwin FC | 0-2 | Darwin Hearts |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Darwin Hearts
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Casuarina FC | 1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 06/06 | Mindil Aces | 0-3 | 0-4 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Palmerston Rovers FC | 1-4 | 3-4 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 23/05 | University Azzurri FC | 1-3 | 1-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 12/05 | Hellenic AC | 2-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 10/05 | Garuda FC | 1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 02/05 | University Azzurri FC | 1-0 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 25/04 | Darwin Olympic | 1-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 22/04 | Casuarina FC | 1-1 | 5-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Port Darwin FC | 1-3 | 3-4 | 11 | 3 | L |
Port Darwin FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Palmerston Rovers FC | 6-0 | 10-0 | 14 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | Mindil Aces | 0-4 | 0-8 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | Garuda FC | 1-1 | 5-3 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Hellenic AC | 1-0 | 6-2 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 20/05 | University Azzurri FC | 1-2 | 1-6 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | Darwin Olympic | 2-1 | 6-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 12/05 | University Azzurri FC | 1-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 08/05 | Casuarina FC | 3-1 | 5-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Stormbirds SC | 1-0 | 4-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 26/04 | Mindil Aces | 1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 2 | L |