Football · Lithuania A Lyga · 28/06, 17:00
Banga Gargzdai vs Hegelmann Litauen
49%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Banga Gargzdai 1551 · Hegelmann Litauen 1494
| Banga Gargzdai | Draw | Hegelmann Litauen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 30% | 21% |
| Market | 50% | 28% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.23 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.23Banga Gargzdai 1.39 · Hegelmann Litauen 0.84
Over / Under 2Over 2 · 52%
BTTSNo · 51%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Banga Gargzdai (rating 1551 vs 1494).
- H2H favours Banga Gargzdai: 3-1-2.
- Early goals: 1.3 combined avg at HT (0.6 + 0.7) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Banga Gargzdai | Hegelmann Litauen | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1 | 1.3 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 5.1 | 1.7 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.2 | 4.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Banga Gargzdai 3–1–2 Hegelmann Litauen
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 Lithuania A Lyga | Banga Gargzdai | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Hegelmann Litauen |
| 22/02/26 Lithuania A Lyga | Hegelmann Litauen | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Banga Gargzdai |
| 05/10/25 Lithuania A Lyga | Hegelmann Litauen | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Banga Gargzdai |
| 13/08/25 Lithuania A Lyga | Banga Gargzdai | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Hegelmann Litauen |
| 31/05/25 Lithuania A Lyga | Hegelmann Litauen | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Banga Gargzdai |
| 01/03/25 Lithuania A Lyga | Banga Gargzdai | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Hegelmann Litauen |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Banga Gargzdai
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga |
1-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 17/06 | FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 13/06 | Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 30/05 | FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 24/05 | Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 20/05 | FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania Cup |
0-0 | 3-4 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 16/05 | FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga |
1-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 05/05 | FK Riteriai Lithuania A Lyga |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 01/05 | FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga |
2-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
Hegelmann Litauen
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06 | FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 14/06 | FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 29/05 | FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga |
2-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 20/05 | FK Transinvest Lithuania Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 06/05 | Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga |
2-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 01/05 | FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-2 | 0-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |