Football · Lithuania A Lyga · 29/06, 17:45
Panevezys vs Suduva Marijampole
43%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Panevezys 1489 · Suduva Marijampole 1545
| Panevezys | Draw | Suduva Marijampole | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 30% | 43% |
| Market | 28% | 28% | 44% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.4Panevezys 1.04 · Suduva Marijampole 1.36
Over / Under 2Over 2 · 55%
BTTSYes · 52%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Suduva Marijampole (rating 1489 vs 1545).
- H2H favours Suduva Marijampole: 2-3-1.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Panevezys | Suduva Marijampole | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.8 | 2 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.2 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/0/70% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4 | 2.6 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.2 | 2.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Panevezys 1–3–2 Suduva Marijampole
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 Lithuania A Lyga | Suduva Marijampole | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Panevezys |
| 22/02/26 Lithuania A Lyga | Panevezys | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Suduva Marijampole |
| 16/09/25 Lithuania Cup | Suduva Marijampole | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Panevezys |
| 12/09/25 Lithuania A Lyga | Suduva Marijampole | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Panevezys |
| 07/07/25 Lithuania A Lyga | Panevezys | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Suduva Marijampole |
| 04/05/25 Lithuania A Lyga | Suduva Marijampole | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Panevezys |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Panevezys
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | FK Minija Lithuania Cup |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 10 | L |
| 20/06 | FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga |
2-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 16/06 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 12/06 | FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 24/05 | Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 20/05 | FK Atmosfera Lithuania Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 06/05 | Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga |
1-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 03/05 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
Suduva Marijampole
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 16/06 | FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 13/06 | Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 29/05 | FK Riteriai Lithuania A Lyga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 10/05 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 06/05 | FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 02/05 | FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga |
1-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 28/04 | FK Minija Lithuania Cup |
0-1 | 6-7 | – | – | L |