Football · Australia Queensland Premier League · 30/06, 12:30
Logan Lightning vs Redlands United
Expected goals: 3.35 (Logan Lightning 1.65 · Redlands United 1.7). The model gives 37% home, 24% draw, 39% away. Over 3 goals (53%) and both teams to score (59%). Most likely score: 1-1.
39%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Logan Lightning 1478 · Redlands United 1518
| Logan Lightning | Draw | Redlands United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 25% | 39% |
| Market | 38% | 23% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.35Logan Lightning 1.65 · Redlands United 1.7
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 53%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Redlands United (rating 1478 vs 1518).
- H2H favours Logan Lightning: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Logan Lightning | Redlands United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.7 | 2.5 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.9 | 1.5 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 11/56/33% | 80/20/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 4.1 | 1.8 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.8 / 0 | 3.2 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Logan Lightning 3–1–2 Redlands United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/25 Australia Queensland Premier League | Logan Lightning | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Redlands United |
| 28/06/25 Australia Queensland Premier League | Redlands United | 0-7 HT 0-3 | Logan Lightning |
| 20/05/25 Australia Cup Qualifying | Logan Lightning | 3-3 HT 3-2 | Redlands United |
| 05/09/21 Australia NPL Queensland | Logan Lightning | 2-3 HT 0-1 | Redlands United |
| 22/05/21 Australia NPL Queensland | Redlands United | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Logan Lightning |
| 25/01/20 Australia Pre-Season Cup | Logan Lightning | 3-5 HT 1-2 | Redlands United |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broadbeach United | 16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 46 | 15 | 44 |
| 2 | Brisbane Strikers | 16 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 39 | 12 | 39 |
| 3 | Ipswich FC | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 21 | 27 |
| 4 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 21 | 26 |
| 5 | Caboolture FC | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 33 | 28 | 26 |
| 6 | Robina City | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 20 | 24 |
| 7 | Holland Park Hawks | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 30 | 22 |
| 8 | Redlands United | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 31 | 25 | 21 |
| 9 | Logan Lightning | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 23 | 29 | 17 |
| 10 | North Star | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 15 | 35 | 11 |
| 11 | St George Willawong FC | 16 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 39 | 7 |
| 12 | Capalaba FC | 16 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 16 | 48 | 7 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Logan Lightning | Redlands United |
|---|---|---|
| Caboolture FC | 1-3 L | 2-4 L |
| Holland Park Hawks | 2-3 L | 4-1 W |
| Robina City | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Capalaba FC | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| St George Willawong FC | 0-0 D | 3-0 W |
| North Star | 3-1 W | 5-0 W |
| Broadbeach United | 0-4 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 4 L | 3 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Redlands United (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Logan Lightning
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Caboolture FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 23/06 | Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 20/06 | Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 05/06 | Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 27/05 | St George Willawong FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 23/05 | North Star Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 29/04 | Broadbeach United Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 19/04 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-2 | 2-5 | 4 | 0 | L |
Redlands United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League |
3-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 20/06 | Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 07/06 | St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 08/05 | Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Caboolture FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
2-1 | 2-4 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 10/04 | Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 02/04 | Capalaba FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 28/03 | North Star Australia Queensland Premier League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 3 | W |