⚽ Football · Australia Queensland Premier League Women · 27/06, 11:00
Grange Thistle (W) vs Logan Lightning (W)
40%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Grange Thistle (W) 1454 · Logan Lightning (W) 1517
| Grange Thistle (W) | Draw | Logan Lightning (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 20% | 41% |
| Market | 41% | 24% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.16 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals4.16Grange Thistle (W) 2.05 · Logan Lightning (W) 2.1
Over / Under 4Over 4 · 50%
BTTSYes · 76%
Likely score2-2
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Logan Lightning (W) (rating 1454 vs 1517).
- High estimate: 4.16 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Logan Lightning (W): 2-0-0.
- Early goals: 2.1 combined avg at HT (0.8 + 1.3) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Grange Thistle (W) | Logan Lightning (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 2.4 | 2 / 3.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1.3 | 1.3 / 1.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 30/10/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5 | 2.1 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1 / 0.1 | 1 / 0 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Grange Thistle (W) 0–0–2 Logan Lightning (W)
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/25 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Grange Thistle (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Logan Lightning (W) |
| 29/06/25 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Logan Lightning (W) | 4-1 HT 1-1 | Grange Thistle (W) |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Grange Thistle (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-2 | 4-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 10/05 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-2 | 2-4 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-5 | 0-7 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 1-3 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 11/04 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 28/03 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 21/03 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 14/03 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 06/03 | Ipswich Knights Women Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
Logan Lightning (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-2 | 3-2 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 05/06 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
0-3 | 0-6 | – | – | L |
| 26/05 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
4-0 | 4-3 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
3-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-3 | 0-9 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-3 | 0-4 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 17/04 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 11/04 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
4-1 | 4-3 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 28/03 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |