Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 05/07, 14:00
IFK Goteborg vs AIK
Expected goals: 2.88 (IFK Goteborg 1.46 · AIK 1.42). The model gives 37% home, 28% draw, 35% away. Over 2.5 goals (53%) and both teams to score (56%). Most likely score: 1-1.
37%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · IFK Goteborg 1482 · AIK 1482
| IFK Goteborg | Draw | AIK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| Market | 37% | 28% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.88IFK Goteborg 1.46 · AIK 1.42
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 53%
BTTSYes · 56%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours AIK: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| IFK Goteborg | AIK | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 2.1 | 1.3 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 3.9 | 2.9 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0 | 4.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · IFK Goteborg 1–2–3 AIK
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/25 Sweden Allsvenskan | IFK Goteborg | 2-1 HT 1-0 | AIK |
| 29/06/25 Sweden Allsvenskan | AIK | 3-0 HT 2-0 | IFK Goteborg |
| 21/10/24 Sweden Allsvenskan | IFK Goteborg | 1-2 HT 0-1 | AIK |
| 27/05/24 Sweden Allsvenskan | AIK | 5-2 HT 1-1 | IFK Goteborg |
| 06/11/23 Sweden Allsvenskan | IFK Goteborg | 1-1 HT 1-0 | AIK |
| 15/05/23 Sweden Allsvenskan | AIK | 2-2 HT 1-1 | IFK Goteborg |
Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 10 | 28 |
| 2 | BK Hacken | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 20 | 14 | 20 |
| 3 | Elfsborg | 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 16 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Hammarby | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 13 | 17 |
| 5 | GAIS | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 11 | 15 |
| 6 | Mjällby AIF | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 15 |
| 7 | Brommapojkarna | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 16 | 15 |
| 8 | Djurgarden | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 13 | 13 |
| 9 | Malmo FF | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 13 |
| 10 | AIK | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 12 |
| 11 | Vasteras SK | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 22 | 12 |
| 12 | Degerfors | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 10 |
| 13 | Kalmar FF | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 15 | 10 |
| 14 | IFK Goteborg | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 22 | 10 |
| 15 | Halmstad | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 20 | 6 |
| 16 | Orgryte IS | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 25 | 6 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | IFK Goteborg | AIK |
|---|---|---|
| Vasteras SK | 5-4 W | 3-2 W |
| Hammarby | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Djurgarden | 0-6 L | 2-4 L |
| Kalmar FF | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: AIK (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
IFK Goteborg
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Ham-Kam Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 18/06 | Valerenga Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 31/05 | Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan |
4-2 | 5-4 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 25/05 | Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 19/05 | Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 04/05 | Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-3 | 0-6 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 23/04 | Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 18/04 | Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
AIK
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Vasteras SK Club Friendly List |
2-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 28/06 | IFK Vasteras FK Club Friendly List |
2-1 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 22/06 | Kalmar FF Club Friendly List |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 30/05 | Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-2 | 0-3 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 24/05 | Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 10/05 | Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-3 | 2-4 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 27/04 | Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-1 | 0-1 | 16 | 4 | L |
| 23/04 | Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |