Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 05/07, 16:30
Elfsborg vs Hammarby
Expected goals: 2.57 (Elfsborg 1.09 · Hammarby 1.48). The model gives 27% home, 27% draw, 46% away. Under 2.5 goals (52%) and both teams to score (53%). Most likely score: 1-1.
46%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Elfsborg 1513 · Hammarby 1523
| Elfsborg | Draw | Hammarby | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 28% | 45% |
| Market | 28% | 26% | 46% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.57Elfsborg 1.09 · Hammarby 1.48
Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 52%
BTTSYes · 53%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Hammarby: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Elfsborg | Hammarby | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.9 | 1.8 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.6 / 3.2 | 2.6 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0 | 3.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Elfsborg 1–1–4 Hammarby
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/25 Sweden Allsvenskan | Hammarby | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Elfsborg |
| 31/05/25 Sweden Allsvenskan | Elfsborg | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Hammarby |
| 22/09/24 Sweden Allsvenskan | Elfsborg | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Hammarby |
| 15/04/24 Sweden Allsvenskan | Hammarby | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Elfsborg |
| 13/08/23 Sweden Allsvenskan | Hammarby | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Elfsborg |
| 03/07/23 Sweden Allsvenskan | Elfsborg | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Hammarby |
Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 10 | 28 |
| 2 | BK Hacken | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 20 | 14 | 20 |
| 3 | Elfsborg | 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 16 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Hammarby | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 13 | 17 |
| 5 | GAIS | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 11 | 15 |
| 6 | Mjällby AIF | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 15 |
| 7 | Brommapojkarna | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 16 | 15 |
| 8 | Djurgarden | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 13 | 13 |
| 9 | Malmo FF | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 13 |
| 10 | AIK | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 12 |
| 11 | Vasteras SK | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 22 | 12 |
| 12 | Degerfors | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 10 |
| 13 | Kalmar FF | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 15 | 10 |
| 14 | IFK Goteborg | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 22 | 10 |
| 15 | Halmstad | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 20 | 6 |
| 16 | Orgryte IS | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 25 | 6 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Elfsborg | Hammarby |
|---|---|---|
| BK Hacken | 1-1 D | 4-1 W |
| Mjällby AIF | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Halmstad | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| AIK | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Djurgarden | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 4 D 0 L | 1 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Elfsborg (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Elfsborg
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Fredrikstad Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 29/05 | Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 25/05 | BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 21/05 | Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 08/05 | Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | AIK Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 27/04 | Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 22/04 | Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 17/04 | Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
Hammarby
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | BK Hacken Club Friendly List |
3-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 31/05 | BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan |
2-0 | 2-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | AIK Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 20/05 | GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan |
3-1 | 4-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 14/05 | Mjällby AIF Sweden Cup |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 22/04 | Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |