Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 05/07, 14:00
Kalmar FF vs Orgryte IS
Expected goals: 3.08 (Kalmar FF 2.12 · Orgryte IS 0.95). The model gives 63% home, 21% draw, 15% away. Under 3 goals (52%) and both teams to score (54%). Most likely score: 2-0.
63%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kalmar FF 1529 · Orgryte IS 1421
| Kalmar FF | Draw | Orgryte IS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 22% | 15% |
| Market | 64% | 21% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.08 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.08Kalmar FF 2.12 · Orgryte IS 0.95
Over / Under 3Under 3 · 52%
BTTSYes · 54%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kalmar FF (rating 1529 vs 1421).
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Kalmar FF | Orgryte IS | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.1 | 1 / 2.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 10/20/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.2 | 2.6 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0 | 3.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Kalmar FF 2–1–2 Orgryte IS
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/26 Sweden Cup | Kalmar FF | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Orgryte IS |
| 01/11/25 Sweden Superettan | Orgryte IS | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Kalmar FF |
| 22/06/25 Sweden Superettan | Kalmar FF | 2-3 HT 0-1 | Orgryte IS |
| 23/02/20 Sweden Cup | Kalmar FF | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Orgryte IS |
| 11/03/17 Europe Friendlies | Orgryte IS | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Kalmar FF |
Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 10 | 28 |
| 2 | BK Hacken | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 20 | 14 | 20 |
| 3 | Elfsborg | 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 16 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Hammarby | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 13 | 17 |
| 5 | GAIS | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 11 | 15 |
| 6 | Mjällby AIF | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 15 |
| 7 | Brommapojkarna | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 16 | 15 |
| 8 | Djurgarden | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 13 | 13 |
| 9 | Malmo FF | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 13 |
| 10 | AIK | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 12 |
| 11 | Vasteras SK | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 22 | 12 |
| 12 | Degerfors | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 10 |
| 13 | Kalmar FF | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 15 | 10 |
| 14 | IFK Goteborg | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 22 | 10 |
| 15 | Halmstad | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 20 | 6 |
| 16 | Orgryte IS | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 25 | 6 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Kalmar FF | Orgryte IS |
|---|---|---|
| Brommapojkarna | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| GAIS | 0-3 L | 0-4 L |
| Degerfors | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Halmstad | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Sirius | 2-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Elfsborg | 2-1 W | 2-2 D |
| IFK Goteborg | 1-1 D | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 2 L | 0 W 2 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Kalmar FF (7 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kalmar FF
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Brommapojkarna Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 22/06 | AIK Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan |
2-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 27/04 | Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 23/04 | IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 19/04 | AIK Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
Orgryte IS
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05 | Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 23/05 | Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 19/05 | IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 11/05 | Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 03/05 | GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-1 | 0-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 27/04 | Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 22/04 | Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-4 | 1-8 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 11/04 | Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 05/04 | Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |