Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 04/07, 15:00
Degerfors vs Malmo FF
39%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Degerfors 1502 · Malmo FF 1480
| Degerfors | Draw | Malmo FF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| Market | 34% | 27% | 39% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.14 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.14Degerfors 1.52 · Malmo FF 1.62
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 56%
BTTSYes · 57%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- High estimate: 3.14 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Malmo FF: 4-2-0.
- Early goals: 1.5 combined avg at HT (0.3 + 1.2) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Degerfors | Malmo FF | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.5 | 2.1 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1 | 1.2 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 3.9 | 2 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0 | 3.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Degerfors 0–2–4 Malmo FF
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/25 Sweden Allsvenskan | Malmo FF | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Degerfors |
| 11/05/25 Sweden Allsvenskan | Degerfors | 1-4 HT 0-2 | Malmo FF |
| 23/09/23 Sweden Allsvenskan | Degerfors | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Malmo FF |
| 05/06/23 Sweden Allsvenskan | Malmo FF | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Degerfors |
| 05/03/23 Sweden Cup | Malmo FF | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Degerfors |
| 06/11/22 Sweden Allsvenskan | Malmo FF | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Degerfors |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Degerfors
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Lillestrom Club Friendly List |
1-2 | 3-2 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 31/05 | Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 23/05 | Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 09/05 | Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 27/04 | Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 5 | D |
| 23/04 | AIK Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 17/04 | Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 12/04 | Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
Malmo FF
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Midtjylland Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 30/05 | Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan |
2-2 | 5-2 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 24/05 | Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan |
2-3 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 27/04 | AIK Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 23/04 | Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 17/04 | Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 12/04 | GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan |
3-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |