Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 03/07, 19:00
Sirius vs Mjällby AIF
59%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sirius 1577 · Mjällby AIF 1562
| Sirius | Draw | Mjällby AIF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Market | 59% | 23% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.84Sirius 1.89 · Mjällby AIF 0.96
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 53%
BTTSYes · 53%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Mjällby AIF: 5-1-0.
- Early goals: 2.3 combined avg at HT (1.3 + 1) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sirius | Mjällby AIF | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 1.1 | 1.9 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.7 | 1 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/0/30% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 5 | 2.3 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.1 | 3.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sirius 0–1–5 Mjällby AIF
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07/25 Sweden Allsvenskan | Mjällby AIF | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Sirius |
| 14/07/25 Sweden Allsvenskan | Sirius | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Mjällby AIF |
| 03/11/24 Sweden Allsvenskan | Sirius | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Mjällby AIF |
| 06/07/24 Sweden Allsvenskan | Mjällby AIF | 3-2 HT 0-0 | Sirius |
| 24/07/23 Sweden Allsvenskan | Sirius | 2-3 HT 1-2 | Mjällby AIF |
| 14/05/23 Sweden Allsvenskan | Mjällby AIF | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Sirius |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sirius
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Djurgarden Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 30/05 | AIK Sweden Allsvenskan |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 24/05 | GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan |
2-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 18/05 | Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan |
2-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 11/05 | Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 27/04 | BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-2 | 2-2 | 11 | 1 | D |
| 23/04 | Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 18/04 | Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan |
3-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 13/04 | Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
Mjällby AIF
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Halmstad Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 3-3 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 25/05 | IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 21/05 | Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 14/05 | Hammarby Sweden Cup |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan |
3-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 27/04 | Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 23/04 | GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan |
3-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |