Football · Iran Div 1 · 27/06, 17:00
Shahrdari Noshahr vs Mes Kerman
37%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Shahrdari Noshahr 1455 · Mes Kerman 1516
| Shahrdari Noshahr | Draw | Mes Kerman | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 43% | 23% |
| Market | 39% | 33% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.22 goals · Bet365 line 1.5 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals1.22Shahrdari Noshahr 0.7 · Mes Kerman 0.52
Over / Under 1.5Under 1.5 · 58%
BTTSNo · 60%
Most likely total1 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 88%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mes Kerman (rating 1455 vs 1516).
- Low estimate: 1.22 goals → consider Under 2.5.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Shahrdari Noshahr | Mes Kerman | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.2 / 0.9 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 0.1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/80/20% | 0/86/14% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 4.2 | 2.6 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.4 | 4.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Shahrdari Noshahr 0–2–1 Mes Kerman
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/12/25 Iran Div 1 | Mes Kerman | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Shahrdari Noshahr |
| 05/04/25 Iran Div 1 | Mes Kerman | 0-0 | Shahrdari Noshahr |
| 10/11/24 Iran Div 1 | Shahrdari Noshahr | 2-3 HT 1-0 | Mes Kerman |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shahrdari Noshahr
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Sanat Naft Abadan Iran Div 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 16/06 | Navad Urmia Iran Div 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 10/06 | Palayesh Naft Bandar Abbas FC Iran Div 1 |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 02/06 | Ario Eslamshahr Iran Div 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 27/05 | Pars Jonoubi Jam Iran Div 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 21/05 | Mes Shahr-e Babak Iran Div 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 14/05 | FC Fard Iran Div 1 |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 21/02 | Naft Gachsaran Iran Div 1 |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 15/02 | Havadar SC Iran Div 1 |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 09/02 | Nassaji Mazandaran Iran Div 1 |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
Mes Kerman
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Pars Jonoubi Jam Iran Div 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 7 | D |
| 15/06 | Havadar SC Iran Div 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 09/06 | Naft Gachsaran Iran Div 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 02/06 | FC Fard Iran Div 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 27/05 | Nassaji Mazandaran Iran Div 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 21/05 | Ario Eslamshahr Iran Div 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 14/05 | Mes Shahr-e Babak Iran Div 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 22/02 | Damash Gilan Iran Div 1 |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 15/02 | Mes Soongoun Varzaghan Iran Div 1 |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 09/02 | Besat Kermanshah Iran Div 1 |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |