Football · Peru Copa de la Liga · 29/06, 20:00
FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Moquegua
38%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FBC Melgar 1535 · Deportivo Moquegua 1490
| FBC Melgar | Draw | Deportivo Moquegua | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| Market | 33% | 30% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.11FBC Melgar 1.52 · Deportivo Moquegua 1.59
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 56%
BTTSYes · 57%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FBC Melgar (rating 1535 vs 1490).
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FBC Melgar | Deportivo Moquegua | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.3 | 1.4 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.6 | 1.3 / 2.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.6 | 3.6 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FBC Melgar 1–0–0 Deportivo Moquegua
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/02/26 Peru Liga 1 | FBC Melgar | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Deportivo Moquegua |
Standings · Peru Copa de la Liga · Copa de La Liga 2026, Group H
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Moquegua | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Bentin Tacna Heroica | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| 3 | FBC Melgar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FBC Melgar | Deportivo Moquegua |
|---|---|---|
| Bentin Tacna Heroica | 2-3 L | 3-2 W |
| Juan Pablo II College | 1-1 D | 3-0 W |
| Universitario de Deportes | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Deportivo Moquegua (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FBC Melgar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06 | Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Copa de la Liga |
1-2 | 2-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 22/05 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 16/05 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 10/05 | Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 04/05 | UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 28/04 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 20/04 | Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 15/04 | Sport Boys Peru Liga 1 |
3-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 04/04 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
Deportivo Moquegua
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Copa de la Liga |
2-2 | 3-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 29/05 | Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 17/05 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 09/05 | AD Tarma Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 03/05 | Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 20/04 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 14/04 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 03/04 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |