Football · Lebanon League · 28/06, 15:00
Al Ahed vs Shabab Al-Sahel
61%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Al Ahed 1490 · Shabab Al-Sahel 1483
| Al Ahed | Draw | Shabab Al-Sahel | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 26% | 14% |
| Market | 62% | 24% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.42Al Ahed 1.71 · Shabab Al-Sahel 0.7
Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 54%
BTTSNo · 51%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Al Ahed: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Al Ahed | Shabab Al-Sahel | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.3 | 1.1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 4.2 | 2.5 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0 | 2.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Ahed 5–0–1 Shabab Al-Sahel
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/25 Lebanon League | Shabab Al-Sahel | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Al Ahed |
| 30/03/25 Lebanon League | Shabab Al-Sahel | 1-8 HT 1-2 | Al Ahed |
| 24/09/23 Lebanon League | Shabab Al-Sahel | 0-5 HT 0-1 | Al Ahed |
| 24/04/23 Lebanon Cup | Shabab Al-Sahel | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Al Ahed |
| 04/03/23 Lebanon League | Al Ahed | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Shabab Al-Sahel |
| 13/01/23 Lebanon League | Shabab Al-Sahel | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Al Ahed |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Al Ahed
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Safa Beirut Lebanon League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 20/06 | Al Ansar Beirut Lebanon League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 16/06 | Sagesse SC Lebanon League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 12/06 | Al Nejmeh Lebanon League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 18/05 | Safa Beirut World Club Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 12/05 | Al Ansar Beirut Lebanon League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 21/02 | Tadamon Sour Lebanon League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 15/02 | Al-Mabarrah Lebanon League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 11/02 | Sagesse SC Lebanon Cup |
0-0 | 2-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 06/02 | Jwaya FC Lebanon League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
Shabab Al-Sahel
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Reyady Abaseya Lebanon League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 16/06 | Racing Beirut Lebanon League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 12/06 | Safa Beirut Lebanon League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 22/02 | Al Ansar Beirut Lebanon League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 16/02 | Sagesse SC Lebanon League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 07/02 | Al Nejmeh Lebanon League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 31/01 | Tadamon Sour Lebanon League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 23/01 | Al-Mabarrah Lebanon League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 10/01 | Al Ansar Beirut Club Friendly List |
2-3 | 2-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 30/12 | Safa Beirut Lebanon League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |