Football · Lebanon League · 29/06, 20:30
Al-Mabarrah vs Al Ansar Beirut
75%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Al-Mabarrah 1478 · Al Ansar Beirut 1558
| Al-Mabarrah | Draw | Al Ansar Beirut | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 8% | 17% | 75% |
| Market | 8% | 16% | 75% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.11Al-Mabarrah 0.69 · Al Ansar Beirut 2.43
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 56%
BTTSYes · 50%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Ansar Beirut (rating 1478 vs 1558).
- High estimate: 3.11 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 1.5 combined avg at HT (0.4 + 1.1) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Al-Mabarrah | Al Ansar Beirut | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.8 | 3.5 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.9 | 1.1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 13/63/25% | 44/33/22% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.1 / 1.9 | 3.4 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.2 | 3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Al-Mabarrah 0–0–1 Al Ansar Beirut
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/12/25 Lebanon League | Al Ansar Beirut | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Al-Mabarrah |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Al-Mabarrah
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Sagesse SC Lebanon League |
1-4 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 21/06 | Al Nejmeh Lebanon League |
0-2 | 0-5 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 16/06 | Tadamon Sour Lebanon League |
– | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 11/06 | Racing Beirut Lebanon League |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 21/02 | Jwaya FC Lebanon League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 15/02 | Al Ahed Lebanon League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 07/02 | Reyady Abaseya Lebanon League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 23/01 | Shabab Al-Sahel Lebanon League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 17/01 | Sagesse SC Lebanon Cup |
1-1 | 5-6 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 25/12 | Safa Beirut Lebanon League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 9 | W |
Al Ansar Beirut
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Jwaya FC Lebanon League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 20/06 | Al Ahed Lebanon League |
3-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 21/05 | Al Nejmeh World Club Friendlies |
– | 16-15 | – | – | W |
| 15/05 | Safa Beirut World Club Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 12/05 | Al Ahed Lebanon League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 19/04 | Muras United FC AFC Challenge League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 22/02 | Shabab Al-Sahel Lebanon League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 17/02 | Reyady Abaseya Lebanon League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 13/02 | Safa Beirut Lebanon League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 08/02 | Racing Beirut Lebanon League |
4-0 | 6-0 | 11 | 3 | W |