Football · Lebanon League · 29/06, 14:30
Sagesse SC vs Tadamon Sour
51%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sagesse SC 1541 · Tadamon Sour 1441
| Sagesse SC | Draw | Tadamon Sour | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Market | 51% | 28% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.17 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.17Sagesse SC 1.39 · Tadamon Sour 0.78
Over / Under 2Under 2 · 51%
BTTSNo · 51%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sagesse SC (rating 1541 vs 1441).
- H2H favours Sagesse SC: 2-4-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sagesse SC | Tadamon Sour | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 1.8 | 0.5 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.6 | 0.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 14/43/43% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.7 | 0.9 / 2.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0 | 3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sagesse SC 2–4–0 Tadamon Sour
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/25 Lebanon League | Tadamon Sour | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sagesse SC |
| 26/06/25 Lebanon League | Sagesse SC | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Tadamon Sour |
| 12/05/25 Lebanon League | Sagesse SC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Tadamon Sour |
| 12/04/25 Lebanon League | Tadamon Sour | 0-2 | Sagesse SC |
| 19/02/25 Lebanon League | Sagesse SC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Tadamon Sour |
| 17/05/24 Lebanon League | Sagesse SC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Tadamon Sour |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sagesse SC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Al-Mabarrah Lebanon League |
4-1 | 4-2 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | Jwaya FC Lebanon League |
2-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 16/06 | Al Ahed Lebanon League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 12/06 | Reyady Abaseya Lebanon League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 16/02 | Shabab Al-Sahel Lebanon League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 11/02 | Al Ahed Lebanon Cup |
0-0 | 4-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 06/02 | Safa Beirut Lebanon League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 30/01 | Al Ansar Beirut Lebanon League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 23/01 | Racing Beirut Lebanon League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 17/01 | Al-Mabarrah Lebanon Cup |
1-1 | 6-5 | 5 | 1 | W |
Tadamon Sour
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Al Nejmeh Lebanon League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 21/06 | Racing Beirut Lebanon League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 16/06 | Al-Mabarrah Lebanon League |
– | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 27/02 | Jwaya FC Lebanon League |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 21/02 | Al Ahed Lebanon League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 13/02 | Reyady Abaseya Lebanon League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 31/01 | Shabab Al-Sahel Lebanon League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 24/01 | Safa Beirut Lebanon League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 18/01 | Al Ahed Lebanon Cup |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 26/12 | Al Ansar Beirut Lebanon League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |