Football · Peru Copa de la Liga · 28/06, 20:00
Alianza Lima vs Alianza Atletico
53%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alianza Lima 1559 · Alianza Atletico 1479
| Alianza Lima | Draw | Alianza Atletico | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 20% | 29% | 51% |
| Market | 23% | 23% | 54% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.25Alianza Lima 0.8 · Alianza Atletico 1.45
Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 54%
BTTSNo · 51%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alianza Lima (rating 1559 vs 1479).
- H2H favours Alianza Lima: 3-2-1.
- Early goals: 1.6 combined avg at HT (1 + 0.6) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Alianza Lima | Alianza Atletico | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 0.6 | 1.2 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.2 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3 | 1.9 / 3.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.2 | 4.6 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza Lima 3–2–1 Alianza Atletico
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/26 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Atletico | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Alianza Lima |
| 28/07/25 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Lima | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Alianza Atletico |
| 15/02/25 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Atletico | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Alianza Lima |
| 21/07/24 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Lima | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Alianza Atletico |
| 04/02/24 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Atletico | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Alianza Lima |
| 27/08/23 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Lima | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Alianza Atletico |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alianza Lima
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Carlos Manucci Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 14/06 | Cesar Vallejo Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 31/05 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 24/05 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 19/04 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
4-0 | 8-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 14/04 | AD Tarma Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
Alianza Atletico
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06 | Cesar Vallejo Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | Carlos Manucci Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 31/05 | FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 29/05 | CA Tigre Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 24/05 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 22/05 | Macara Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 11/05 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 07/05 | America de Cali Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
3-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 6 | W |