⚽ Football · Peru Copa de la Liga · 26/06, 22:15
Sport Huancayo vs AD Tarma
49%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sport Huancayo 1474 · AD Tarma 1531
| Sport Huancayo | Draw | AD Tarma | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Market | 60% | 23% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals2.74Sport Huancayo 1.36 · AD Tarma 1.38
Most likely total2 goals
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AD Tarma (rating 1474 vs 1531).
- H2H favours AD Tarma: 5-0-1.
- Early goals: 1.2 combined avg at HT (0.5 + 0.7) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sport Huancayo | AD Tarma | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 2 | 1.6 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/60/40% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.1 | 1.7 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.3 | 4.5 / 0.3 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Sport Huancayo 1–0–5 AD Tarma
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Peru Liga 1 | Sport Huancayo | 0-1 HT 0-0 | AD Tarma |
| 09/08/25 Peru Liga 1 | AD Tarma | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Sport Huancayo |
| 08/03/25 Peru Liga 1 | Sport Huancayo | 2-1 HT 1-1 | AD Tarma |
| 25/08/24 Peru Liga 1 | AD Tarma | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Sport Huancayo |
| 31/03/24 Peru Liga 1 | Sport Huancayo | 0-2 HT 0-0 | AD Tarma |
| 17/09/23 Peru Liga 1 | AD Tarma | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Sport Huancayo |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Sport Huancayo
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Union Minas Peru Copa de la Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 14/06 | Alianza Universidad Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 31/05 | Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 16/05 | FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 10/05 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
1-3 | 1-4 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 26/04 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 19/04 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 15/04 | UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | D |
AD Tarma
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06 | Alianza Universidad Peru Copa de la Liga |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 12/06 | Union Minas Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 30/05 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
1-2 | 1-2 | 12 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 9 | L |
| 17/05 | Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 09/05 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 8 | D |
| 02/05 | Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 27/04 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 14/04 | Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |