Football · Peru Copa de la Liga · 27/06, 22:15
Sporting Cristal vs Union Comercio
55%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sporting Cristal 1459 · Union Comercio 1533
| Sporting Cristal | Draw | Union Comercio | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Market | 55% | 23% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.74 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.74Sporting Cristal 1.75 · Union Comercio 0.99
Over / Under 3Under 3 · 54%
BTTSYes · 53%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Comercio (rating 1459 vs 1533).
- H2H favours Sporting Cristal: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 12.5 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sporting Cristal | Union Comercio | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.9 | 1 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.8 | 0.3 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.6 | 3.4 / 6.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.4 | 4.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting Cristal 5–0–1 Union Comercio
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10/24 Peru Liga 1 | Union Comercio | 0-12 HT 0-7 | Sporting Cristal |
| 18/05/24 Peru Liga 1 | Sporting Cristal | 5-1 HT 4-1 | Union Comercio |
| 02/07/23 Peru Liga 1 | Sporting Cristal | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Union Comercio |
| 13/05/23 Peru Liga 1 | Union Comercio | 1-6 HT 1-2 | Sporting Cristal |
| 04/07/21 Peru Copa Bicentenario | Sporting Cristal | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Union Comercio |
| 25/08/19 Peru Liga 1 | Union Comercio | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Sporting Cristal |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sporting Cristal
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | CD Estudiantil CNI Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 13/06 | Comerciantes FC Peru Copa de la Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 01/06 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
2-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 29/05 | Cerro Porteno Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | AD Tarma Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 12 | 9 | W |
| 21/05 | Junior Copa Libertadores |
1-3 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 15/05 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 10/05 | Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 06/05 | Palmeiras Copa Libertadores |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
2-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
Union Comercio
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Comerciantes FC Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 15/06 | CD Estudiantil CNI Peru Copa de la Liga |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | CD Universidad San Martin Peru Liga 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 17/05 | Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Liga 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 14 | 12 | D |
| 09/05 | Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Pirata FC Peru Liga 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 26/04 | Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Liga 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 05/04 | Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 02/11 | Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2 |
1-0 | 2-2 | – | – | D |