⚽ Football · Brazil Copa Rio · 24/06, 16:00
Sao Goncalo vs Serrano
39%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sao Goncalo 1467 · Serrano 1499
| Sao Goncalo | Draw | Serrano | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 33% | 29% |
| Market | 40% | 31% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.81 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals1.81Sao Goncalo 0.98 · Serrano 0.83
Over / Under 2Under 2 · 57%
BTTSNo · 65%
Likely score0-0
🔑 Match keys
- Low estimate: 1.81 goals → consider Under 2.5.
- H2H favours Serrano: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 12.7 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sao Goncalo | Serrano | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 0.9 | 1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.8 | 2.8 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 7 / 0.1 | 5.7 / 0.2 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Sao Goncalo 2–1–3 Serrano
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06/26 Brazil Copa Rio | Serrano | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sao Goncalo |
| 26/10/24 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B | Serrano | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Sao Goncalo |
| 28/10/23 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B | Serrano | 4-3 HT 3-1 | Sao Goncalo |
| 17/09/22 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B | Serrano | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Sao Goncalo |
| 23/10/21 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B | Sao Goncalo | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Serrano |
| 09/10/21 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B | Sao Goncalo | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Serrano |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Sao Goncalo
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 17/06 | Serrano Brazil Copa Rio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 14/06 | Araruama FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 06/06 | Olaria AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 03/06 | America RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | Cabofriense Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 13 | 6 | L |
| 16/05 | Resende RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 11 | L |
| 13/05 | Marica RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | Americano RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 29/04 | Perolas Negras Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 10 | L |
Serrano
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Resende RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 17/06 | Sao Goncalo Brazil Copa Rio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 14/06 | Marica RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 06/06 | Perolas Negras Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 12 | 7 | L |
| 30/05 | Americano RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Audax Rio Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 10 | W |
| 16/05 | Cabofriense Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 13 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | Olaria AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 8 | D |
| 29/04 | Araruama FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca A2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |