⚽ Football · USA USL League Two · 25/06, 02:00
AC Houston Sur vs AHFC Royals
59%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · AC Houston Sur 1386 · AHFC Royals 1517
| AC Houston Sur | Draw | AHFC Royals | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 19% | 50% |
| Market | 15% | 18% | 67% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.27 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals4.27AC Houston Sur 1.88 · AHFC Royals 2.39
Over / Under 4Over 4 · 50%
BTTSYes · 77%
Likely score1-2
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AHFC Royals (rating 1386 vs 1517).
- High estimate: 4.27 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours AHFC Royals: 5-1-0.
- Early goals: 1.7 avg at HT → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| AC Houston Sur | AHFC Royals | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 3.5 | 2.5 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1.6 | 1.1 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/20/70% | 33/56/11% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.7 / 1.3 | 2.7 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.3 | 5 / 0.7 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · AC Houston Sur 0–1–5 AHFC Royals
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/26 USA USL League Two | AHFC Royals | 2-2 HT 1-1 | AC Houston Sur |
| 19/06/25 USA USL League Two | AC Houston Sur | 1-6 HT 1-2 | AHFC Royals |
| 05/06/25 USA USL League Two | AHFC Royals | 1-0 HT 0-0 | AC Houston Sur |
| 28/06/24 USA USL League Two | AC Houston Sur | 0-3 HT 0-3 | AHFC Royals |
| 12/06/24 USA USL League Two | AHFC Royals | 1-0 HT 0-0 | AC Houston Sur |
| 11/07/23 USA USL League Two | AHFC Royals | 3-1 HT 1-0 | AC Houston Sur |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
AC Houston Sur
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Houston FC USA USL League Two |
0-3 | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 17/06 | GFI Academy USA USL League Two |
2-3 | 3-8 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 14/06 | Lonestar SC USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 07/06 | Laredo Heat USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 04/06 | AHFC Royals USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 31/05 | Twin City Toucans USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 2-4 | – | – | L |
| 24/05 | Lonestar SC USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 10/07 | Houston FC USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 29/06 | Hill Country Lobos USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 7 | D |
| 26/06 | Twin City Toucans USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-4 | – | – | L |
AHFC Royals
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | San Antonio FC II USA USL League Two |
2-1 | 5-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 11/06 | Hill Country Lobos USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 07/06 | Lonestar SC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 04/06 | AC Houston Sur USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 31/05 | Laredo Heat USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 11 | L |
| 21/05 | Twin City Toucans USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/05 | Hill Country Lobos USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 14/05 | Houston FC USA USL League Two |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 13/07 | Laredo Heat USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 10/07 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |