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Football · Chile Cup · 02/07, 00:00

Universidad de Concepcion vs Nublense

Expected goals: 2.89 (Universidad de Concepcion 1.43 · Nublense 1.46). The model gives 36% home, 28% draw, 37% away. Over 2.5 goals (53%) and both teams to score (56%). Most likely score: 1-1.

37%2
36% 28% 37%
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Universidad de Concepcion 1454 · Nublense 1549
Universidad de ConcepcionDrawNublense
Our model36%27%37%
Market35%28%37%
Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis
Expected goals2.89Universidad de Concepcion 1.43 · Nublense 1.46
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 53%
BTTSYes · 56%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nublense (rating 1454 vs 1549).
  • H2H favours Nublense: 5-1-0.
  • Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Universidad de ConcepcionNublense
Goals for / against (FT)1.3 / 2.11.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)0.6 / 1.10.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)10/40/50%40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)1.6 / 3.62.3 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)5.8 / 0.34.2 / 0.3

Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad de Concepcion 0–1–5 Nublense

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DateHomeScoreAway
26/06/26
Chile Cup
Nublense4-2
HT 1-1
Universidad de Concepcion
07/06/26
Chile Copa de la Liga
Nublense2-1
HT 1-0
Universidad de Concepcion
23/05/26
Chile Liga de Primera
Nublense2-2
HT 2-0
Universidad de Concepcion
31/03/26
Chile Copa de la Liga
Universidad de Concepcion0-2
HT 0-1
Nublense
06/04/25
Chile Cup
Nublense2-0
HT 1-0
Universidad de Concepcion
31/01/25
Chile Cup
Universidad de Concepcion2-3
HT 2-0
Nublense

Standings · Chile Cup · Copa Chile 2026, Group F

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Curico Unido 4211 547
2 Nublense 3201 536
3 Rangers de Talca 4202 446
4 Universidad de Concepcion 3012 581

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentUniversidad de ConcepcionNublense
Curico Unido 2-2 D 0-1 L
Rangers de Talca 1-2 L 1-0 W
Universidad Catolica 1-5 L 1-1 D
Cobresal 1-2 L 1-0 W
Record vs common 0 W 1 D 3 L 2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Nublense (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Universidad de Concepcion

DLWDDLLLLD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
28/06 Curico Unido
Chile Cup
 2-2 2-2 35 D
26/06 Nublense
Chile Cup
 1-1 2-4 34 L
21/06 Rangers de Talca
Chile Cup
 0-0 1-2 38 L
14/06 Universidad Catolica
Chile Liga de Primera
 1-2 1-5 34 L
07/06 Nublense
Chile Copa de la Liga
 0-1 1-2 38 L
30/05 Union La Calera
Chile Liga de Primera
 0-0 0-0 45 D
23/05 Nublense
Chile Liga de Primera
 0-2 2-2 54 D
16/05 O'Higgins
Chile Liga de Primera
 1-0 1-0 06 W
09/05 Cobresal
Chile Copa de la Liga
 0-1 1-2 55 L
03/05 Universidad Catolica
Chile Copa de la Liga
 1-2 2-2 712 D

Nublense

WDLDWWDLWW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
28/06 Rangers de Talca
Chile Cup
 1-0 1-0 54 W
26/06 Universidad de Concepcion
Chile Cup
 1-1 4-2 74 W
21/06 Curico Unido
Chile Cup
 0-0 0-1 63 L
14/06 Huachipato
Chile Liga de Primera
 1-2 2-2 105 D
07/06 Universidad de Concepcion
Chile Copa de la Liga
 1-0 2-1 28 W
30/05 Cobresal
Chile Liga de Primera
 1-0 1-0 45 W
23/05 Universidad de Concepcion
Chile Liga de Primera
 2-0 2-2 24 D
17/05 Colo Colo
Chile Liga de Primera
 1-2 2-6 41 L
10/05 Universidad Catolica
Chile Copa de la Liga
 0-1 1-1 45 D
03/05 Cobresal
Chile Copa de la Liga
 0-0 2-0 56 W