Football · Chile Cup · 27/06, 23:00
Club Deportes Santa Cruz vs Palestino
44%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Club Deportes Santa Cruz 1479 · Palestino 1520
| Club Deportes Santa Cruz | Draw | Palestino | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 27% | 44% |
| Market | 28% | 29% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.87Club Deportes Santa Cruz 1.26 · Palestino 1.61
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 52%
BTTSYes · 55%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Palestino (rating 1479 vs 1520).
- Early goals: 1.7 combined avg at HT (0.6 + 1.1) → Over 0.5 HT.
- High corners: 11.7 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Club Deportes Santa Cruz | Palestino | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.5 | 1.9 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 1.1 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 6.6 | 2.2 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.3 | 4.4 / 0.4 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Club Deportes Santa Cruz
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Audax Italiano Chile Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 07/06 | Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 02/06 | Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 24/05 | CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 19/05 | Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B |
2-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Deportes Recoleta Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 9 | L |
| 02/05 | Deportes Iquique Chile Primera B |
2-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 27/04 | Union Espanola Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 19/04 | Union San Felipe Chile Primera B |
1-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Magallanes Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
Palestino
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Audax Italiano Chile Cup |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 9 | L |
| 20/06 | Magallanes Chile Cup |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 08/06 | O'Higgins Chile Copa de la Liga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 01/06 | Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 27/05 | Deportivo Riestra Copa Sudamericana |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 24/05 | Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 21/05 | Gremio Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 0-2 | 10 | 7 | L |
| 16/05 | La Serena Chile Liga de Primera |
3-0 | 5-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 12/05 | Deportes Limache Chile Copa de la Liga |
1-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 5 | W |