⚽ Football · Chile Cup · 27/06, 23:00
San Marcos De Arica vs Coquimbo Unido
43%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · San Marcos De Arica 1512 · Coquimbo Unido 1553
| San Marcos De Arica | Draw | Coquimbo Unido | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| Market | 23% | 26% | 51% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals2.41San Marcos De Arica 1.25 · Coquimbo Unido 1.16
Most likely total2 goals
💎 ValueSan Marcos De Arica or draw · @2.05Safer option: double chance at 2.05 (win or draw). The straight winner paid more but is riskier.
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Coquimbo Unido (rating 1512 vs 1553).
- H2H favours Coquimbo Unido: 4-2-0.
- Early goals: 1.3 combined avg at HT (0.5 + 0.8) → Over 0.5 HT.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| San Marcos De Arica | Coquimbo Unido | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.1 | 1.7 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.3 | 0.8 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.2 | 3.7 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.1 | 4.4 / 0.4 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · San Marcos De Arica 0–2–4 Coquimbo Unido
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/25 Chile Cup | Coquimbo Unido | 3-0 HT 0-0 | San Marcos De Arica |
| 29/01/25 Chile Cup | San Marcos De Arica | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Coquimbo Unido |
| 29/09/21 Chile Primera B | San Marcos De Arica | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Coquimbo Unido |
| 24/05/21 Chile Primera B | Coquimbo Unido | 1-0 HT 0-0 | San Marcos De Arica |
| 21/10/18 Chile Primera B | Coquimbo Unido | 4-0 HT 2-0 | San Marcos De Arica |
| 03/06/18 Chile Primera B | San Marcos De Arica | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Coquimbo Unido |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
San Marcos De Arica
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Deportes Limache Chile Cup |
1-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 06/06 | San Luis Quillota Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 31/05 | Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Puerto Montt Chile Primera B |
2-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 12/05 | Curico Unido Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 05/05 | Deportes Recoleta Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Cobreloa Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 13/04 | Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 5 | W |
Coquimbo Unido
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | Deportes Limache Chile Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 12 | 2 | D |
| 20/06 | Deportes Iquique Chile Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 06/06 | Deportes Concepcion Chile Copa de la Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 27/05 | Nacional De Football Copa Libertadores |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 22/05 | Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 20/05 | Deportes Tolima Copa Libertadores |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera |
2-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 14/05 | Colo Colo Chile Copa de la Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |