Football · Chile Cup · 27/06, 23:30
Audax Italiano vs Magallanes
64%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Audax Italiano 1510 · Magallanes 1477
| Audax Italiano | Draw | Magallanes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 22% | 15% |
| Market | 64% | 20% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.08Audax Italiano 2.12 · Magallanes 0.96
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 55%
BTTSYes · 54%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Audax Italiano: 4-0-2.
- Early goals: 1.3 combined avg at HT (0.7 + 0.6) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Audax Italiano | Magallanes | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.7 | 2.7 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.4 | 5.8 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Audax Italiano 4–0–2 Magallanes
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/12/23 Chile Liga de Primera | Audax Italiano | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Magallanes |
| 13/05/23 Chile Liga de Primera | Magallanes | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Audax Italiano |
| 05/07/21 Chile Cup | Audax Italiano | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Magallanes |
| 30/06/21 Chile Cup | Magallanes | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Audax Italiano |
| 02/08/15 Chile Cup | Magallanes | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Audax Italiano |
| 10/07/15 Chile Cup | Audax Italiano | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Magallanes |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Audax Italiano
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Palestino Chile Cup |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 20/06 | Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | La Serena Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 07/06 | Universidad de Chile Chile Copa de la Liga |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 01/06 | Palestino Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 28/05 | Olimpia Asuncion Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 20/05 | Barracas Central Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 16/05 | Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | La Serena Chile Copa de la Liga |
2-2 | 4-2 | 4 | 6 | W |
Magallanes
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Palestino Chile Cup |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 07/06 | CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 31/05 | Deportes Iquique Chile Primera B |
2-0 | 4-3 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 25/05 | San Luis Quillota Chile Primera B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Deportes Recoleta Chile Primera B |
2-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 09/05 | Puerto Montt Chile Primera B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 10 | L |
| 03/05 | Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 2-3 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 25/04 | Union San Felipe Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 18/04 | Santiago Wanderers Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 2-3 | 16 | 8 | L |
| 11/04 | Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |