Football · Chile Cup · 28/06, 02:00
Universidad Catolica vs San Luis Quillota
71%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Universidad Catolica 1607 · San Luis Quillota 1530
| Universidad Catolica | Draw | San Luis Quillota | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 18% | 11% |
| Market | 72% | 16% | 12% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.28 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.28Universidad Catolica 2.41 · San Luis Quillota 0.87
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 51%
BTTSYes · 53%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universidad Catolica (rating 1607 vs 1530).
- High estimate: 3.28 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours San Luis Quillota: 3-1-2.
- Early goals: 2.1 combined avg at HT (1.2 + 0.9) → Over 0.5 HT.
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Universidad Catolica | San Luis Quillota | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 0.6 | 1.8 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.4 | 0.9 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.6 / 5.7 | 2.8 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.9 | 4.5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad Catolica 2–1–3 San Luis Quillota
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/25 Chile Cup | Universidad Catolica | 2-3 HT 1-1 | San Luis Quillota |
| 02/02/25 Chile Cup | San Luis Quillota | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Universidad Catolica |
| 23/09/18 Chile Liga de Primera | Universidad Catolica | 2-1 HT 0-1 | San Luis Quillota |
| 30/04/18 Chile Liga de Primera | San Luis Quillota | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Universidad Catolica |
| 05/11/17 Chile Apertura | Universidad Catolica | 0-2 HT 0-1 | San Luis Quillota |
| 06/02/17 Chile Clausura | Universidad Catolica | 1-0 HT 0-0 | San Luis Quillota |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Universidad Catolica
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Everton de Vina Chile Cup |
3-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 20/06 | Deportes Copiapo Chile Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 14/06 | Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
2-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 07/06 | Cobresal Chile Copa de la Liga |
1-1 | 5-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Boca Juniors Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 25/05 | Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera |
1-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 22/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 10/05 | Nublense Chile Copa de la Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
San Luis Quillota
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Everton de Vina Chile Cup |
0-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 06/06 | San Marcos De Arica Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 30/05 | Deportes Recoleta Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 25/05 | Magallanes Chile Primera B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | Puerto Montt Chile Primera B |
2-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 10/05 | CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 05/05 | Union San Felipe Chile Primera B |
2-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 26/04 | Cobreloa Chile Primera B |
1-2 | 1-3 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 20/04 | Deportes Iquique Chile Primera B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 12/04 | Santiago Wanderers Chile Primera B |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 9 | L |