⚽ Football · Chile Cup · 28/06, 18:30
La Serena vs Cobreloa
41%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · La Serena 1415 · Cobreloa 1537
| La Serena | Draw | Cobreloa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 25% | 47% |
| Market | 51% | 27% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.8
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.26La Serena 1.4 · Cobreloa 1.85
BTTSYes · 65%
Most likely total3 goals
💎 ValueOver 2.5 goals · +6.5%The model gives this bet 6.5% more probability than its odds (1.95) pay: the bookie has it underpriced.
🔑 Match keys
- Our estimated total (3.26) is far from Bet365's line (2.5): possible value on Over 2.5.
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cobreloa (rating 1415 vs 1537).
- High estimate: 3.26 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Cobreloa: 5-0-1.
- Early goals: 1.6 combined avg at HT (0.7 + 0.9) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| La Serena | Cobreloa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 2.8 | 1.9 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1.4 | 0.9 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.1 | 2.8 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.4 | 5.7 / 0.4 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · La Serena 1–0–5 Cobreloa
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/23 Chile Primera B | Cobreloa | 1-0 HT 1-0 | La Serena |
| 19/03/23 Chile Primera B | La Serena | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Cobreloa |
| 04/08/19 Chile Primera B | Cobreloa | 3-1 HT 1-1 | La Serena |
| 09/03/19 Chile Primera B | La Serena | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Cobreloa |
| 07/10/18 Chile Primera B | La Serena | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Cobreloa |
| 01/04/18 Chile Primera B | Cobreloa | 2-1 HT 0-0 | La Serena |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
La Serena
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Cobresal Chile Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 21/06 | CD Antofagasta Chile Cup |
1-2 | 2-4 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 07/06 | Union La Calera Chile Copa de la Liga |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 30/05 | Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Palestino Chile Liga de Primera |
0-3 | 1-5 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Audax Italiano Chile Copa de la Liga |
2-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 02/05 | Universidad de Chile Chile Copa de la Liga |
0-3 | 0-5 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 26/04 | Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 19/04 | Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
3-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 4 | D |
Cobreloa
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Cobresal Chile Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 06/06 | Puerto Montt Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 31/05 | Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 21/05 | Deportes Recoleta Chile Primera B |
1-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 7 | D |
| 16/05 | Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Santiago Wanderers Chile Primera B |
1-1 | 1-5 | 2 | 10 | L |
| 03/05 | CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | San Luis Quillota Chile Primera B |
2-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 18/04 | San Marcos De Arica Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Union Espanola Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 8 | D |