⚽ Football · Chile Cup · 28/06, 21:00
Union La Calera vs Santiago Wanderers
45%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Union La Calera 1471 · Santiago Wanderers 1529
| Union La Calera | Draw | Santiago Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 26% | 37% |
| Market | 52% | 25% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💰 bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.02Union La Calera 1.5 · Santiago Wanderers 1.52
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 53%
BTTSYes · 57%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Santiago Wanderers (rating 1471 vs 1529).
- H2H favours Union La Calera: 4-0-2.
- Early goals: 1.8 combined avg at HT (0.8 + 1) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 12.3 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Union La Calera | Santiago Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.5 | 2.2 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 1 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.1 | 2.5 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.6 / 0.3 | 6.7 / 0.4 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Union La Calera 4–0–2 Santiago Wanderers
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09/21 Chile Liga de Primera | Union La Calera | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Santiago Wanderers |
| 11/04/21 Chile Liga de Primera | Santiago Wanderers | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Union La Calera |
| 02/01/21 Chile Liga de Primera | Union La Calera | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Santiago Wanderers |
| 15/10/20 Chile Liga de Primera | Santiago Wanderers | 0-3 HT 0-0 | Union La Calera |
| 21/12/17 Chile Play-Offs | Santiago Wanderers | 4-6 HT 0-0 | Union La Calera |
| 14/12/17 Chile Play-Offs | Union La Calera | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Santiago Wanderers |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Union La Calera
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Universidad de Chile Chile Cup |
2-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 21/06 | Union San Felipe Chile Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 14/06 | Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 07/06 | La Serena Chile Copa de la Liga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 30/05 | Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 24/05 | Palestino Chile Liga de Primera |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 10/05 | Universidad de Chile Chile Copa de la Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Audax Italiano Chile Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 25/04 | Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 9 | L |
Santiago Wanderers
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Universidad de Chile Chile Cup |
0-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 06/06 | Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 10 | L |
| 30/05 | Union Espanola Chile Primera B |
1-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 23/05 | Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | Curico Unido Chile Primera B |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 10/05 | Cobreloa Chile Primera B |
1-1 | 5-1 | 7 | 10 | W |
| 03/05 | Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B |
2-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 28/04 | Deportes Iquique Chile Primera B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 18/04 | Magallanes Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 12/04 | San Luis Quillota Chile Primera B |
1-1 | 3-1 | 10 | 9 | W |