⚽ Football · Chile Cup · 28/06, 23:30
Universidad de Chile vs Union San Felipe
63%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Universidad de Chile 1542 · Union San Felipe 1501
| Universidad de Chile | Draw | Union San Felipe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| Market | 72% | 18% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💰 bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.12Universidad de Chile 1.88 · Union San Felipe 1.24
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 51%
BTTSYes · 56%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universidad de Chile (rating 1542 vs 1501).
- High estimate: 3.12 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 1.7 combined avg at HT (1.2 + 0.5) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Universidad de Chile | Union San Felipe | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.1 | 1.1 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/10/30% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 5.7 | 2.4 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.7 / 0.3 | 3.4 / 0.2 |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Universidad de Chile
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Union La Calera Chile Cup |
1-2 | 3-3 | 9 | 7 | D |
| 21/06 | Santiago Wanderers Chile Cup |
2-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 19/06 | O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 14/06 | Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 07/06 | Audax Italiano Chile Copa de la Liga |
1-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 30/05 | Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 10 | W |
| 17/05 | Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Union La Calera Chile Copa de la Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | La Serena Chile Copa de la Liga |
3-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 26/04 | Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 9 | W |
Union San Felipe
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Union La Calera Chile Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 09/06 | Union Espanola Chile Primera B |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 30/05 | Puerto Montt Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 24/05 | Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B |
0-2 | 0-5 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B |
1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 05/05 | San Luis Quillota Chile Primera B |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Magallanes Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 19/04 | Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Primera B |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 11/04 | Curico Unido Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 6 | D |