⚽ Football · USA NPSL · 25/06, 00:30
Virginia Dream vs Alexandria Reds
59%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Virginia Dream 1566 · Alexandria Reds 1510
| Virginia Dream | Draw | Alexandria Reds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 21% | 25% |
| Market | 64% | 18% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.54 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.54Virginia Dream 2.14 · Alexandria Reds 1.4
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 67%
Likely score2-1
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Virginia Dream (rating 1566 vs 1510).
- High estimate: 3.54 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Alexandria Reds: 2-3-1.
- Early goals: 2.4 combined avg at HT (1 + 1.4) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Virginia Dream | Alexandria Reds | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 1.3 | 2.5 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.5 | 1.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.5 | 2.2 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0 | 2.2 / 0 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Virginia Dream 1–3–2 Alexandria Reds
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/25 USA NPSL | Alexandria Reds | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Virginia Dream |
| 11/07/24 USA NPSL | Alexandria Reds | 2-3 HT 2-0 | Virginia Dream |
| 06/06/24 USA NPSL | Alexandria Reds | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Virginia Dream |
| 16/05/24 USA NPSL | Virginia Dream | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Alexandria Reds |
| 22/06/23 USA NPSL | Virginia Dream | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Alexandria Reds |
| 21/05/23 USA NPSL | Alexandria Reds | 4-2 HT 3-1 | Virginia Dream |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Virginia Dream
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Grove Soccer United USA NPSL |
0-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/06 | FC Frederick USA NPSL |
2-0 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 15/06 | FC Frederick USA NPSL |
3-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | DMV Elite FC USA NPSL |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | District Elite USA NPSL |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 18/05 | Hub City FC USA NPSL |
3-1 | 7-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 01/04 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA US Open Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 19/03 | Carolina Core FC USA US Open Cup |
0-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 7 | W |
| 13/07 | Ristozi FC USA NPSL |
1-1 | 1-1 | 12 | 5 | D |
| 10/07 | Grove Soccer United USA NPSL |
0-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
Alexandria Reds
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | District Elite USA NPSL |
1-2 | 2-4 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 18/06 | Hub City FC USA NPSL |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 14/06 | DMV Elite FC USA NPSL |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | Ristozi FC USA NPSL |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 31/05 | Virginia Atlantic USA NPSL |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 28/05 | Virginia Atlantic USA NPSL |
4-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Grove Soccer United USA NPSL |
2-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 09/07 | Ristozi FC USA NPSL |
0-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 05/07 | Alexandria Rough Diamonds USA NPSL |
5-0 | 10-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 27/06 | Ristozi FC USA NPSL |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |